My uninformed Opinion........
 

Absolutely. No question.


Yes

The Kurds have their own flag, a national anthem, their own language and long history of national identity. I believe they also have control of the Oil in their territory. Their separation is inevitable. The Kurds will try and do it peacefully (but they have been fighting for like 70 years for independence and since 1991 they have had an independent state in every conceivable way except not on paper) but I am sure they will resort to violence in the long run if they don't get their way. Kurdistan, in one way or another will become independent. I am sure of it. But that is just my opinion.

My uninformed Opinion........
 

2. So the next question is, Does the bush administration agree with this? If so, what are they doing to prepare for it? If the Kurds resort to violence, would we care? Is there sufficient oil under their control for us to have an interest in that? Are there any other US interests implicated if the Kurds fight for their independence? What are our interests if the Kurds lose? If they win?

Spanky, please ask Condi for me. Her office won't return my calls, for some reason.

Government is not the solution it is the problem.
 

As originally conceived, the CPB was supposed to be a funding source and no more. Programming decsions were supposed to be in the hands of an independent, academically based, essentially balanced board.

Voice of America was a Cold War program, grown out of a WWII program, designed purely to broadcast propaganda to the "enemies" of America and to encourage other indigenous populations to aid and abet the CIA. It was sort of our version of Tokyo Rose.

I think that CPB has been in general a solid effort, that has become overly politicized in the years since Reagan. VOA is, and always has been IMO, just plain silly.

What to do
 

I agree with you on the source of the problem. Unfortunately, I don't think there is a solution. I think your prediction for Iraq is on target, and I think it will wind up iinfecting neighboring countries like Turkey, Iran, Afghanistan, and others.

Spanky is correct, at least to the extent he posits that people tend naturally to favor organizing along common cultural grounds, rather than the arbitrary lines drawn by departing colonial powers. Where I part company with him is his feeling that these various ethnic groups will be allowed by the existing givernments in the region to redraw the map without major civil war in multiple countries, leading ultimately to a permanent state of hostilities and more political instability.

I pray that I'm wrong. But I'm going purely on hope and faith.

What to do
 

This, too, is my number one fear, and why I believe our current policy should focus on easing the transition to "natural" boundaries.

What to do
 

If all of this leads to ten years of low-grade revolutionary fighting in all of those venues followed by the end of the present arbitrary national bounderies, mightn't that be the pressure reliever that finally brings stability to the ME?

(Not that I'm saying that the war and death that would occur would be good things, but that maybe they're necessary things for that region. I can't see that kind of regrouping happening peacefully.)

The Dems have hit on a strategy
 

Whiff. It refers to when I stopped doing drugs, which drugs, incidentally, a credit for my Clinton vote in 1992.

My uninformed Opinion........
 

Like I said before, I am pretty sure that the administration thinks Iraq can remain intact and thinks it is in Americas interest that it does. How much pain they are willing to go through to insure that I don't know. I am also pretty sure the no matter what happens Kurds will eventually win.

No one in the administration will talk to me. I have been disloyal and consequently am persona non-grata. Sorry can't help.

My uninformed Opinion........
 

You are viewed as disloyal?!?

I could not imagine being as loyal to any party, even an imaginary party run solely by me, as you are to the Republicans.

My uninformed Opinion........
 

I think he likes to do oral sodomy with his girlfriend.

What to do
 

You mean like the 60 years of fighting has brought stability to Israel and Palestine?

My uninformed Opinion........
 

You've been sending them those "conservatives don't spend like drunken sailors" e-mails again, haven't you?

What to do
 

Well, I guess I'm positing more equal opponents, such as part of Turkey splitting away to rejoin their Kurdish neighbors, to the dismay of the rest of Turkey.

What to do
 

Actually I think you misinterpreted me and, unfortunately I don't think you are wrong in your last conclusion. The only thing I think is inevitable is the change. How violent it will be will depend on the government whose jurisdictions includes different ethnic groups or divide ethnic groups. But history has taught us no one likes to give up power. The break up of the Soviet Union was the exception not the rule.

The pull towards ethnic nation states is like boiling water in a sealed pot. As long as the fire is burning the pressure inside the pot will increase. You can keep reinforcing the pot (more repression) or let out steam (give in to ethnic demands). As long as the fire is burning the steam will get out one way or another. You can keep reinforcing the pot but at some point you will run out of material to reinforce the pot and it will explode. The only way to stop the steam from getting out is putting out the fire (and the only way to put out the fire is through ethnic cleansing). Unfortunately I think US policy will be to encourage the respective governments to reinforce the pot.

This happened with Bush One in the Ukraine. When it was still part of the Soviet Union he went to Ukraine and told them they should not get any ideas about national independence. In other words the soviet union would not break. I developed my theory in college so at the time I thought his "Chiken Kiev" speech was completely the wrong move. But it did not occur to me I would be proved right so quickly.

Another example is Kosovo. Eventually Kosovo will leave Serbia and in the longer term it will join with Albania. One way or another that will happen.

My uninformed Opinion........
 

I have written many articles published in papers critisizing the Bush administration on Social issues, spending issues, corporate welfare, farm subsidies and trade. In addition, I have supported candidates in primaries that were taking on the administrations "favorite son". For an administration that values loyalty, I have been a very bad boy.