I Wonder
 

"Inventiveness and creativity" are wonderful things to have on top of good basic skills. Lacking those good basic skills, I & C are of dubious benefit. A significant number of kids (no, not all, not even most, but a good-sized group, unfortunately characterized mostly by poor urban setting) were NOT getting those good basic skills. That was the target of NCLB, and the test emphasis. It wasn't to increase the number of hours available to rich white suburban kids in music lab. NCLB did end up being a drag on the already-successful schools systems, which arguably didn't need the mandated emphasis on basics, but, if you look at the numbers, it's had the desired effects on its true targets.

I Wonder
 

I suspect I'd disagree with you on a wide range of educational issues, but I will say this: I would prefer a well implemented and consistent approach I disagreed with to my own ideal approach implemented in a half-assed fashion.

So, you've got NCLB as a signature bill for the administration -- how do you view their implementation? Has it been well implemented? Prioritized appropriately?

As you know, the President is proposing budgets with about 60% of the funding he had built into the NCLB act -- what incredible changes in circumstances or successes have led him to be able to deliver at 60% of the cost? Did you guys find something that was Free (I know Hank's always looking).

I Wonder
 

2. (not to the program because I have no idea) the people I grew up with are the ones who are screwed by the loss of the $28/hour factory jobs. trust me, they are not generally inventive or creative. Thomas Edison wouldn't need a government program today- all the lower middle class dull normal kids at my old high school are the problem.

I Wonder
 

Bush's signature bill? I'm remembering back to when it was urged and passed, and there was this other guy who was co-sponsoring the bill with Bush - he thought it was a great idea - iin fact, it truly was a more liberal-oriented bill, one that imposed systemic requirements that were primarily designed to help pull the bottom up - Kennedy somebody, right?

Point is, NCLB mostly imposes testing requirements as a means to stop the auto-pass function that inner city schools were normalizing, and to ensure that those inner-city kids who were getting short educational shrift got as good a deal as did the rest of the country.

Teachers hate it. It provides for SCORES! It makes it easy to compare results! Anathema! So, yeah, the NEA has bitched about it mightily, and loves to complain that it takes away from teaching. But, I have several kidlets, and I can see how much they test compared to how much I used to test, and it ain't that big of a change, and, wonder of wonders, it appears that the results are showing that the poorest-performing schools at the beginning of NCLB are becoming much better.

The costs that people like to complain about? It's the record-keeping involved. If we accept that we need some objective criteria with which to judge the efficacy of our schools, why does this need to be federally-funded? Especially when, pre-testing, the educaion system was arguably NOT doing its job for a significant part of society?

I Wonder
 

So you don't think it's a problem that the bill, once passed, has not seen anywhere near the funding planned, the funding that the bill was sold on? That Bush hasn't even requested much of it in his budget bills, given his other budgetary priorities?

If it is so successful, why aren't the Rs running on it?

Suggestion
 

To make this thread meaningful for its purpose, I would suggest that all posts that aren't purely (or primarily) numerical predictions of the composition of the Senate and House be moved into the main PB thread. It's complex enough to have one discussion thread going, let alone two.

I Wonder
 

Burger's right. Can I answer this next door?

Suggestion
 

2

I Wonder
 

gr8

I Wonder
 

In a previous life, I would be asking you why you are specifying Grade 8 fasteners given the brittleness issue.

My Bet
 

Actually, I counted wrong when I read this. My prediction back then was a Dem House and a 2-3 seat net Dem gain in the Senate.

S_A_M

My Bet
 

I'll go for a Dem House by four, and a tied (or at least functionally deadlocked) Senate.

My Bet
 

Couldn't that term properly describe any Senate in which Bill Frist is the majority leader?

Election '06: Prognostication.
 

For Governors races, Dem. pickup of 5, so Dems 27, Reps. 23 when the dust settles.

Election '06: Prognostication.
 

I'm amending my House picks to 222 Ds, 213 Rs. It's looking stronger every day.

Should we have a deadline for our prognostications?

Election '06: Prognostication.
 

are polls for house races really accurate at all. when I worked in a campaign the polls were pretty meaningless. have they gotten better, or are these predictions more based upon national percentages?

Rs up, Ds down
 

I predict the Rs hold both chambers by at least two seats in each.

Sorry Ds. There is always immigration to France.

I predict the Dems gain 4 seats in the Senate (Casey, Brown, Tester or Whitehouse, and Webb) and 23 seats in the House. I would not be surprised at all for the gain to be 6 seats in the Senate (Whitehouse or Tester, and McCaskill). I would not be surprised at all if the turnover in the House is higher, perhaps by another half, but I don't think it'll be a lot lower. I have no idea about the governors races, but I hear about a Dem pick-up of 5 to 9 seats, so I'll guess 6.

The Republicans will talk a lot about how it was a bad year for incumbents, and the media will be slow to point out that not a single Democratic incumbent lost.

Dems will pick up four seats (no Harold Ford, alas, and George Allen gets six more years in which to ponder what might have been but for that Macaca punk bastard getting him on tape) in the Senate and 20 in the House. Karl Rove gets hailed as a genius who snatched victory in holding the Senate out of the jaws of defeat.

My Bet
 

2

FYI: current balance is 229/201, though it would be 232/202 but for the four vacancies (three corrupt Rs and one D who became a Senator).

Normal rules apply, as established by the S.Ct. and Hank: counts will be done in the way most favorable to the Rs, and in the event of any dispute (real or imagined), Hank wins.

Are there not any exit polls yet????

I've heard campaign internals from Mass., but those won't surprise anyone. I think the exit polls have become a very closely guarded secret for the Networks.

They've been embargoed until 5 pm EST. And apparently they are only for Senate and Governor races.

10-ish more minutes? (prob 5 if we go by the clock on here, which is always 5 min ahead of my clocks)

Yep, ten minutes until they let the network people out of the windowless room and give them back their blackberries. I wouldn't rely on CNN as a first source for the info, tho, what with the breaking Britney/K-Fed news.

Which means the GOP is doing well.

If the Dems were leading a rout, it would be plastered all over the news.

Um, yeah.

"Broadcast networks plan to confine their reports to a single hour starting at 10 p.m. Eastern time, hosted by their national news anchors. ABC will also feature the midterm elections on "Nightline" from 11:30 p.m. to midnight. In addition, the broadcast channels will do live cut-ins throughout the evening when major results become known."

I think they just think people aren't that into it.

I think the Networks have just realized that paying a ton of money to help Drudge and Kos get hits on election day doesn't do them much good.

T Bogg's election predictions:

• Here are some things that will happen:
  
• No matter how many seats the Democrats take in the House it won't be enough to keep the Republican echo chamber from pointing out that it most certainly is not a mandate, while all the time whining about the loss of control of the commitees.
  
• Joe Lieberman is going to win and it will somehow translate as support for the war and civility and common sense...and nobody in the media will point out what a sleazy campaign he ran.
  
• There will be at least one upset that the polls didn't predict and that will be held up as evidence that all polls are always wrong...except when they side with your candidate.
  
• There will be reports of brown people voting which will cause Michelle Malkin to go off the rails. Okay. Farther off the rails.
  
• Several Republican congressmen with ethical clouds hanging over them will be re-elected only to have to step down later when indictments are handed down.
  
• Matt Drudge will hype something completely trivial unless Madonna does something to distract him which makes him take his eye off of the ball.
  
• Within a week, embargoed news about the war will be released and people will find out things in Iraq are even worse then we suspect.
  
• Win or lose, George Allen's national aspirations are finished. Fertig! Verfallen! Verlumpt! Verblunget! Verkackt!
  
• Lots of recounts.
  
• Michael Steele will lose . . . but that won't stop Republicans from touting him to run with McCain in 2008 because they believe that they are just one Negro away from perpetual electoral domination.
  
• Harold Ford will lose because he is a lousy candidate who is transparently phony.
  
• If either Marilyn Musgrave or JD Hayworth loses I will be one happy boy.
  
• You will see one politician elected who does not represent your district or state and you will wonder what the hell is wrong with the people of that district or state. That politician will probably be Tom Tancredo.
  
• You should probably TIVO Katherine Harris' concession speech so you can play it later at parties.
  
• Pelosi fever! Catch it!
  
• The most banal no-content election blogging will come from Mary Katharine Ham who, while under the delusion that she is teh hot, will provide the kind of political insights one might expect from the assistant night manager down at Wet Seal.
  
• Your best source for a sense of what is happening will still be at Kos and MyDD. The best post-mortem will come from Digby. As usual.
  
• Dick Cheney will be spending election day hunting with his daughter who will not get shot in the face because she is quicker on her feet than a 78-year old man. Besides , it's not lesbian season in South Dakota ...yet.
  
• Blogger will go down throughout the day.

First Exit Polls
 

Show Dems Winning Control of Senate.

(Note that I have it straight from President Kerry that these are good).

First Exit Polls
 

You lefties must masochists. It's over. Socialism and appeasing cut-and-runism are dead in America. I suggest France for your type.

First Exit Polls
 

Really? I've been thinking about moving to Seattle. I'm told it's the new Left Bank.

First Exit Polls
 

It's got better wine.

First Exit Polls
 

As jug wine goes, I hear it's better than the stuff from Alberta and Sasketchewan. I hear Washington State boxed is good for cleaning machine parts, but I still don't understand why the locals drink the stuff. NTTAWWT, YMMV, etc.

FWIW, I wrote myself in and voted for me

Which is nothing, given how much (a) the GOP currently sucks and (b) historical stats of votes during the 6th year of a sitting POTUS.

CNN thinks it's breaking news that Ted Kennedy is going to get re-elected.

Cue Penske.

I didn't know he was up. Shit, and probably some other Kennedys will win in Congress. Tell your Mom and GGG's family to stay off the streets. Keep any women-folk indoors. Kennedys are celebrating!

and the Elder Kleagle from West Virginny.