Important point and very true. I agree that Syria has been a destabilizing influence, but Israel and the US gave them the opportunity to achive their nefarious goals. Before then, Lebanon had achieved a political compromise among the various factions that proved to be pretty stable.

9/11, Fear, and and the Selling of American Empire
 

Someone please termiate this clown

cite please

Do you think Israel is this divorced from the Middle East? The Israelis and Syrians have played fairly similar roles in Lebanon, and have had fairly similiar motivations.

Note that one deal the Syrians would like to cut is a Lebanon for Golan Heights deal.

No, and if I gave the impression that I think Israel is divorced from it all, I mispoke. I think it's central, in that it provides a focus for an awful lot of dissatisfaction. We can "fix" Iraq, Syria can "fix" itself, but Israel is still going to have to find a way to normalize its existence with the rest of the ME in orderfor the whole powderkeg to lessen. I think that's a possibility, if (and only if) the Palestinians can lose their martyrdom.

I agreed with the rest of this posting but I think this bit hit the hammer right on the head of nail. I generally support what the Bush administration is doing but these are valid points. The administration is being hypocritical, because it is not supporting democracy in Pakistan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. However, I don't think we really want democracy in these countries. In general we should push for democracy but sometimes maybe democracy is not a good thing. But again, my position is the height of hypocrisy. Does anyone think we would be better off if Saudi Arabia or Pakistan were democratic?

Syria out of Lebanon
 

Per a post a couple weeks ago, Club is under the impression that Lebanon is/was as totalitarian state, where the oppressed populace lived in fear of a dominating government.

{Not to say that some weren't oppressed . . .}

S_A_M

efs

Syria out of Lebanon
 

I still think that's true - they live in fear of Syria.

I don't have a specific cite, but it is like asking me to cite support for the fact that most Republicans support tax cuts. Or cite support for the fact that most Argentinians think the Falklands should be part of Argentina. Or Spanish that think Gibrarltar should be part of Spain. I saw an episode of nightline where the reporter in Eqypt was trying to find just one Arab who thought Israel had a right to exist. He could not. Everytime I have traveled in in an Arab country I always get asked about the US support of Israel and how could America support Israel. I have never even met a Christian arab that supports Isreal. Can you cite me any poll that shows any support for Isreal in an Arab country?

Cf. Zogby (yes, the pollster oft cited on these boards), What Arabs Think -- this is a 2002 book based on extensive research and polling.

We're going to start looking to Spanky for a conservative realist's perspective on the board, Clubby, and assume you're giving us the neo-con wish-think angle.

Unless, that is, you can come up with as good a reality-based cite for the contrary position, that Democracy in Iraq is leading (not theoretically will lead, sometime after Bush has left office, after we are all dead, or once Global warming has put Washington under 10 feet of water) to a softening of attitudes toward Israel.

(editted to fix spelling and insert additional vituperative little zingers).

I don't think most Americans realize this, but a large percentage of Arabs, see Arabia (that is from Mauritania or Morocco to Iraq and Syria down to Yemen) as a nation that has just not been unified politically yet. They see Israel as occupying part of the heart of the Arab nation. Many refer to Israel has the knife in the heart of Arabia. The hostility towards Isreal in the rest of the Muslim world is more religious and therefor not as intense (or at least less universal). Turkey in fact supports isreal. Eventhough the Iranian government is hostile to Isreal, there are many Iranians that support Isreal (mainly because it sticks it to the Arabs who they hate). But to the Arabs it is a nationalistic issue - so even Christian Arabs (coptics, Caldeans etc), and other non-mulim Arabs are strongly opposed to Isreal.

I think it's an issue mostly because it's been used to deflect popular anger from the ME despots. If you subjugate your people and trash their lives, it's good to give them something external to hate. Israel has been a good target for that, and the constant whine from Arafat has gone far in helping the rest of the ME keep the lid on. But, once (if?) the Palestinians start becoming a merged society, a lot of that goes away.

As to, do we really want democracy in those tyrant states, I think we do, and it's gonna be hell for a while once they get there. It's like working an industrial pressure vessel, and realizing that the relief is stuck closed - you know you have to knock if free, and there's gonna be a dangerous explosive mess when you do that, but you need to do it, because otherwise the pressure's only going up.

I agree with you that the despots use Isreal to divert attention from themselves. But I disagree with you that they need to fan the flames. I think that is the big myth. If you really undestand the Arab view, you can see that they see Israel as a foreigh occupation of Arab land. They view the fact that original residents of palestine are not allowed to return and any western jew can go there as a form of ethnic cleansing of Arab land. All the peace treaties are highly unpopular throughout the Arab world. If you have democratic countries in Arabia that have to respond to the public's wishes they will be less inclined to work with Israel. The current governments have practical reasons to work with (Even if behind the scenes) with Isreal. Democratic governments, that need the support of their populations, will have less of an incentive to work with the Israelis. Democracy may bring Arab political unity, and then Isreal will find itself surrounding by one hugely hostile Arab nation.

Hunh. I thought it was like bees.

Mmmmm, honey.