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1) Mexico, and central america, will start growing lettuce and exporting it to the US at lower prices, because they can pay lower wages, putting the california farms out of business. 2) We will have to subsidize further the lettuce farmers of california so that they can compete. 3) We will realize that it would be cheaper to slap a tariff on lettuce imports, resulting in a trade war. 4) Meanwhile, someone will come up with a "grown in america" label for lettuce, and you'll be able to buy it at whole foods, paying $9.99 a head, instead of $1.29 a head at Safeway/Giant/etc. for the foreign lettuce. The problem that you and Ty have (and others) is not the economics. In principle you're right. But in practice, as sebby points out, americans aren't going to fill those jobs at wages that make the business economically viable. So you end up sending teh business to a place where it is economically viable. Ask anyone in Pittsburgh. In a few years you can ask anyone in Detroit (if not already). |
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I fully realize this would by extension drive my taxes up and drive my wages down, but globalization has to happen. Protectionism is a fool's solution. By design, its just deferring an adverse economic event. You're arguing to protect people now at greater cost to future generations. Kinda contrary to your views on global warming and fiscal responsibility isn't it? Are you on the left always the ones screaming "what about the children?" Well guess what pal... You push off the pain in the labor market with some dipshit democratic short term salve now and your kids will feel some serious motherfucking pain later. |
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I've seen a plausible suggestion that professional services firms moved to lockstop promotions after some suits over sex discrimination and compensation. |
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(1) You're changing the subject. Or just babbling. I'm not talking about protectionism, or globalization. I'm talking about the interplay between immigration and low-end wages. Letting in more immigrants depresses low-end wages. (2) I'm asking whether the country's laws should be set to benefit humanity, or to benefit Americans. I'm not sure what the answer is (which is why I prefaced my comment above, "If I were poor"), but it's a fair question. (3) If immigration benefits society as a whole, but worsens the lot of a large category of people, I think it's fair to propose that as part of a change to open up the borders, we also do x, y and z to ensure that no one is left worse off. In other words, use government to redistribute some of the gains that are created to those who would be harmed. |
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George Bush, authorized Executive.
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On the second point, it could at the point when employing anyone becomes economically inviable. Ask any former manager in Pittsburgh. |
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So what? If the product of a business enterprise is not sufficiently valuable that the owner can afford to pay people enough to create that product, then the business is not worth pursuing. |
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So, people will end up paying more for food. Food is something that both rich and poor pretty much *must* buy, so this increases the basic cost of living. Ditto with housing -- if it's already difficult for e.g. teachers to live in the SF area, how will it be when construction costs go up? It just seems like poorer people will suffer more. But then, I guess they always do. Mmmm, strawberries. ETA I really don't get this logic. We're making it a felony to do X, but we really want most people who are doing X to continue doing it for a while, and kinda maybe taper off in an orderly manner. the article is on Yahoo! news. Yes, I know they are probably taking him a bit out of context, but unless he was playing opposite-land, it's just craziness. Quote:
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But if you introduce the minimum wage into the equation, then you invalidate your own hypothesis. I think what you're inclined to say is that "If the product of a business enterprise is not sufficiently valuable that the owner can afford to pay people the minimum wage to create that product . . . " Because, in so doing, you're ascribing a normative value to "enough". But, perhaps I'm assuming too much. Ty: I was refering to Card and Krueger, whose study on this has been challenged on a host of grounds. you can start here, wiki, if econ 1 leaves you wanting. |
George Bush, authorized Executive.
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And Miller thought so much of it that she didn't even run it. Man, what a story!!!!! |
George Bush, authorized Executive.
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I have yet to understand why you have such a hard-on for him. Leaving aside, of course, your oft-stated view that he got this incredibly plum, lush assignment -- a trip to Niger -- thru "connections." What is this horrible lie that Wilson told that disturbs you so much? |
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George Bush, authorized Executive.
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He didn't "fast-track" anything, since what he did had nothing to do with usual procedures. And telling a single journalist is not usually the way things get into the "public record." I notice that you don't even bother to dispute that Bush cherry-picked what he leaked. Information got declassified to support what the administration had already decided to do. You probably see nothing wrong with that. |
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2. A valid point. I think the laws should benefit Americans, and I think the benefit of immigrant labor outweighs the wage loss to a sector of our society. I also happen to believe that pain will trickle upward into the white collar scene, and I'm willing to accept it because,well, lets face it - we're going to deal with one day or another. Why not sooner? 3. I don't agree with any redistribution other than a base wwelfare program. I don't believe protecting wages for American workers is welfare - its a bit more luxurious and costly than welfare, which is a safety net. Its teaching people a terrible lesson - that you can petition the statehouse to save you from economic reality. You can't somehow construct through legislative edict a "fair" economy in any nation because economic realities are global. You're advocating a policy which would put our businesses at a disadvantage. Say Bob's Metal Tubing in Illinois has to pay $8.50 per hour for labor. That cost gets passed along to his consumer, a home building company. The home building company goes online and finds a Chinese outfit that sells the tubing for much less than Bob because its labor costs are 1/5 of Bob's. Bob will eventually lose all his business to the Chinese outfit. Your minimum-wage increase "fix' only works if coupled with tariffs, which wreak havoc on trade with foreign nations. No matter vhow you slice it, you hurt someone. You want to hurt business people; I want to hurt workers. |
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Look at GM. But for the cost of employee health care, the company would be fairly sound (or in much better straits). |
George Bush, authorized Executive.
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* Speaking of hacks.... |
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As long as crime and/or entitlements pay enough to compete with low-wage jobs, people who have access to either will not join the workforce. Employers will have to pay more than people can scrounge up without working if they want to fill jobs that were once filled by illegals. |
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I don't think there is a "natural order." That was Sebby's gift to the conversation. |
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As it happens, I tend to favor immigration. But I also think it tends to screw a lot of people, who deserve government resources as a result. |
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What Sebby is pointing out is that borders like price controls are an attempt at denying economic reality. And when you sit in denial of the reality of economic forces you implement policies that just make the whole situation worse. Your argument is the classic liberal refrain of, "economic forces are not fair so the government needs to redistribute the money to make things fair." A concept that has proven time and time again to not only be economically ignorant but leads to utterly disastrous policy desisions. As much as you don't like it, the United States is completely interconnected with the rest of the world' and that is an economic reality that borders, immigration rules and tariffs can't change. Whether these Mexicans are on our side of the border or in Mexico they are still our problem and are part of the regions economy. Just like mechanization puts people out of jobs, and India manufacturs things cheaper, there is an economic reality that there are millions of cheap laborers on this continent that speak Spanish. The best way to deal with this issue is not for the government to decide that certain people are unfaily hurt by this reality and then try and provide compensation to those people to make things "fair", the best thing the government can do is provide a climate that allows for as much economic growth as possible. This growth will then create the greatest amount of economic benefit for the greatest amount of people. Your attempt at redistributing the wealth, if implemented, will simply hamper such growth. How long is going to take to sink in that the song of "the government needs to compensate the people that have lost money unfairly to economic forces" is about as stupid an economic idea that there is. |
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There is no "natural" state with regard to borders. Sebby and you are pretending that your own free-market ideals are somehow presumptively the way things should be, rather than a policy choice that harms lots of people. I happen to agree with both of you about the wisdom of open borders and free trade, but I also think that since these policy choices disadvantage a lot of people, we should construct policy so that no one is worse off. Quote:
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Who you calling queer (NTTAWWT)?
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"Construct a policy so that no one is worse off." There is not such thing. And the pursuit of such unrealistic policies by policymakers has let to disaster all over the world. Your argument really boils down do that there is a status quo and if we change the status quo we need to compensate the losers and punish the winners. If you really want to screw up a country’s economy just let that goal be your mantra. Quote:
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Yes, we create a safety net for those people the market leaves out, but your statement clearly shows that we are just back to the basic Socialist v. Capitalist argument. The idea of having the government decide who has been "hurt" by free market forces, and compensating them, is just a stupid idea. Following this line of reasoning, every time a new machine was invented that displaced workers, thereby increasing the labor force, and thereby depressing wages, we would have to compensate the entire US workforce. You are proposing that certain low end workers will be hurt by immigration, and need to be compensated, which is an incredibly stupid idea. If we went around trying to compensate everyone that was hurt by a prudent policy decision that embraced economic realities (as opposed to fighting them) we eventually wouldn't have an economy that could provide the taxes for such a misguided endeavor. |
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I didn't get a chance to stop by my Dentist's office to peruse through Business Week but I did get a chance to read the Economist. Below is an interesting article that was pertinent to our disucssion, especially about immigration pusing down low end wages. Of course the article does completely contradict what you have been arguing, so maybe you should suggest to the Economist management that the staff at the Economist attend an economics 101 class.
Myths and migration Apr 6th 2006 From The Economist print edition Do immigrants really hurt American workers' wages? EVERY now and again America, a nation largely made up of immigrants and their descendants, is gripped by a furious political row over whether and how it should stem the flood of people wanting to enter the country. It is in the midst of just such a quarrel now. Congress is contemplating the erection of a wall along stretches of the Mexican border and a crackdown on illegal workers, as well as softer policies such as a guest-worker programme for illegal immigrants. Some of the arguments are plain silly. Immigration's defenders claim that foreigners come to do jobs that Americans won't—as if cities with few immigrants had no gardeners. Its opponents say that immigrants steal American jobs—succumbing to the fallacy that there are only a fixed number of jobs to go around. One common argument, though not silly, is often overstated: that immigration pushes down American workers' wages, especially among high-school dropouts. It isn't hard to see why this might be. Over the past 25 years American incomes have become less equally distributed, typical wages have grown surprisingly slowly for such a healthy economy and the real wages of the least skilled have actually fallen. It is plausible that immigration is at least partly to blame, especially because recent arrivals have disproportionately poor skills. In the 2000 census immigrants made up 13% of America's pool of workers, but 28% of those without a high-school education and over half of those with eight years' schooling or less. In fact, the relationship between immigration and wages is not clear-cut, even in theory. That is because wages depend on the supply of capital as well as labour. Alone, an influx of immigrants raises the supply of workers and hence reduces wages. But cheaper labour increases the potential return to employers of building new factories or opening new valet-parking companies. In so doing, they create extra demand for workers. Once capital has fully adjusted, the final impact on overall wages should be a wash, as long as the immigrants have not changed the productivity of the workforce as a whole. However, even if wages do not change on average, immigration can still shift the relative pay of workers of different types. A large inflow of low-skilled people could push down the relative wages of low-skilled natives, assuming that they compete for the same jobs. On the other hand, if the immigrants had complementary skills, natives would be relatively better off. To gauge the full effect of immigration on wages, therefore, you need to know how quickly capital adjusts and how far the newcomers are substitutes for local workers. Empirical evidence* is as inconclusive as the theory. One method is to compare wage trends in cities with lots of immigrants, such as Los Angeles, with those in places with only a few, such as Indianapolis. If immigration had a big effect on relative pay, you would expect this to be reflected in differences between cities' wage trends. David Card, of the University of California, Berkeley, is one of the leading advocates of this approach. His research suggests that although there are big differences between cities' proportions of immigrants, this has had no significant effect on unskilled workers' pay. Not everyone is convinced by Mr Card's technique. His critics argue that the geographical distribution of immigrants is not random. Perhaps low-skilled natives leave cities with lots of immigrants rather than compete with them for jobs, so that immigration indirectly pushes up the supply of low-skilled workers elsewhere (and pushes down their wages). Mr Card has tested the idea that immigration displaces low-skilled natives and found scant evidence that it does. An alternative approach, pioneered by George Borjas, of Harvard University, is to tease out the effect of immigration from national wage statistics. Mr Borjas divides people into categories, according to their education and work experience. He assumes that workers of different types are not easily substitutable for each other, but that immigrants and natives within each category are. By comparing wage trends in categories with lots of immigrants against those in groups with only a few, he derives an estimate of immigration's effect. His headline conclusion is that, between 1980 and 2000, immigration caused average wages to be some 3% lower than they would otherwise have been. Wages for high-school drop-outs were dragged down by around 8%. Immigration's critics therefore count Mr Borjas as an ally. But hold on. These figures take no account of the offsetting impact of extra investment. If the capital stock is assumed to adjust, Mr Borjas reports, overall wages are unaffected and the loss of wages for high-school drop-outs is cut to below 5%. Gianmarco Ottaviano, of the University of Bologna, and Giovanni Peri, of the University of California, Davis, argue that Mr Borjas's findings should be adjusted further. They think that, even within the same skill category, immigrants and natives need not be perfect substitutes, pointing out that the two groups tend to end up in different jobs. Mexicans are found in gardening, housework and construction, while low-skilled natives dominate other occupations, such as logging. Taking this into account, the authors claim that between 1980 and 2000 immigration pushed down the wages of American high-school drop-outs by at most 0.4%. None of these studies is decisive, but taken together they suggest that immigration, in the long run, has had only a small negative effect on the pay of America's least skilled and even that is arguable. If Congress wants to reduce wage inequality, building border walls is a bad way of going about it. |
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My point -- the point I was trying to make to Sebby -- is that choosing to make policy in this way is a choice. It is not just "the way the system works." Hell, it's not even the way the system works in a whole bunch of cases where monied or powerful interests who care a lot over come the public interest. E.g., farm subsidies. Quote:
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The Economist
Please think about the claims in these two paragraphs:
The argument is that wages go down, but the workforce goes up. But it goes up because you're letting more people in. For the people who were already here and working, what's in it for them? Maybe the economy is a bit more robust, but their wages are down.
See the italicized paragraph. What facts would you need to see to believe that immigration of low-skilled workers helps domestic low-skilled workers? |
The Economist
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Oooh, and handwashing cars. NEVER really saw that anywhere other than here. Or, not for cheap. So I think more people here get their cars washed than just use the drive through or wash them themselves. ETA see, you are assuming they compete for the same jobs. So you would want facts showing that they don't compete for the same jobs. |
The Economist
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So obviously, the immigrants are robbing the children of California and Texas of a good education. All the discussion on economics is interesting, but, frankly, who gives a damn? The reason to permit broad immigration is that it's the right thing to do. The US should be a home for people who have hopes and dreams, whether those hopes and dreams are to escape poverty or to escape tyranny. So, open the borders wide, and let those who are here stay absent a good reason (crime, for example) for deporting them. Fact is, the President hasn't been as bad on these issues as many Rs would be - he is at least looking to legalize many who are here - and no politician in their right mind is going to be as idealistic on the issues as I'd like. But I really see little reason for the wholesale closing of borders that began with the Chinese Exclusion Act in the 1880s. |
The Economist
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