| Tyrone Slothrop |
12-29-2004 03:35 PM |
Why Aren't We Talking About This?
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Originally posted by bilmore
That's a cruel denigration of the word "vote".
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That was kind of my point. Just because you hold an election and people get a chance to cast a ballot, that doesn't mean you have a democracy. Voting is not an end in itself.
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Maybe I'm too optimistic, but I see the Iraqi society as being not that different than ours. There are two (or maybe three, depending on how you count) religions there. Each religion has some small share of radical nutjobs, who will freely give others' lives for their gawd. But, the mass of people are in the middle, basically believing, but certainly not about to crash planes into buildings or pull tripwires on vests just because of some raisins. (sp?). They yearn for some explanations of the unknowables, and they want a structure that tells them that, by sticking to a defined morality, they're not going to handicap themselves, because others will stick to it, too, but that's really all they're looking to their religion for, not unlike most people here.
They've had - what? - generations of strife. They've had a taste of prosperity, and also a taste of hell, through the auspices of SH. Mussolini made the trains run on time, with some obvious drawbacks. So, too, did SH. So, they know what a functioning infrasrtucture can bring them, quality-of-life-wise, and they want to take part in a society that offers them that, along with some control and freedom. They want to feed their families, send their kids to school, and be a part of the world. They want a Coke.
So, I think that the bulk of the society - Kurd, Shia, and Sunni - will find it more important to work to form a workable group that can build a healthy society, and be prosperous, and join the rest of us, than to fight for their tribal or sectarian advantage.
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The bulk may be trying right now, but it doesn't seem to be going very well. When the police are targets, that's bad.
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Obviously, if the Shia majority elects a government that governs to the clear advantage of Shia society, this won't work. But, I'm thinking that what will prevail will be a religion-neutral group, one that governs for Iraqis, and not some segment of Iraqis. If that happens - even if the Sunni's lose, but then see that the government treats them fairly, shia or sunni or whatever - then and only then can they form an honest-to-gosh cohesive civil society.
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You're not paying attention to who's actually running and what they're saying, are you? Or does this religion-neutral group have a name?
Meanwhile, the question I've been talking about is not really about who's going to win. The question is about whether Sunnis are going to be represented much at all.
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I think the chances of this happening are better than even. I also think this would be the greatest leap forward the entire middle east could possibly take at this point - leading to pressure all over the region for a similar result, starting with Iran, and maybe Syria.
If you understand my optimism for this, and if you understand that I think that right now - today - is the optimal time for this attempt - then you will understand why I think it so vital for the entire world that we make the attempt that we're making now, painful or not, and why I think that a Kerry win would have been so bad for the entire world.
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I think I understand your optimism, but in a clinical way I'm not sure you'd appreciate. It would indeed be wonderful if what you describe were to happen. I've never argued with the wondrousness of the vision. This is kind of like arguing about Jaguars or Land Rovers. They're good-looking cars. Me, I wouldn't buy one unless I had the money for the repairs, and for a nice second car to drive while the first one's in the shop. You're not going to change my mind by telling me how nice the Jaguar or Land Rover is when it runs.
Which is not even to get to your crap about Kerry, since conservatives here were so busy saying that his plan was the same as Bush's. I think there is no particular virtue with sticking with a failing policy instead of trying something new, but whatever.
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Might even help you understand why I like Rummy.
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No, this I really don't understand. Because the people who really believe in this vision of democratizing the Middle East should be ripped at Rumsfeld and Bush right now for screwing it up by trying to do it on the cheap. I can respect the neo-cons who had this vision. I disagreed, but I can respect the views. But this last comment tells me that for you, it's about shilling for Bush et al., not about a vision of democracy in the Middle East.
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