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sgtclub 02-04-2005 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
It would be more refreshing if Bush were aiming to do something to address the crisis, instead of making it worse. He wants to solve the problem of the projected insolvency in 2052 by borrowing trillions now. That cure is worse than the disease -- unless you think the problem is that we have Social Security at all. Since most Americans disagree, the Republicans who feel this way have had to resort to a flim-flam case for change.
He does want to end the crisis. You may quibble with the how, and that is a debate that would be beneficial to all of us.

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy 02-04-2005 03:07 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by sgtclub
I think we can all agree that something has to be done to reform SS at some point in time.
No, I'm afraid not.

Something needs to be done to properly fund social security. The fundamentals, however, should remain in place.

Mmmm, Burger (C.J.) 02-04-2005 03:12 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy


Something needs to be done to properly fund social security.
That's not reform? (or the alternative, cutting the growth of future benefits?)

sgtclub 02-04-2005 03:12 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy
No, I'm afraid not.

Something needs to be done to properly fund social security. The fundamentals, however, should remain in place.
And this, my commie friend, is why you will remain the minority party in the near future.

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy 02-04-2005 03:17 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Mmmm, Burger (C.J.)
That's not reform? (or the alternative, cutting the growth of future benefits?)
I think of reform as meaning changing the basic rules of the system, not merely the funding mechanism.

Bush's goal is to rework the entire benefit structure, and thus to revise the goal and purposes of social security.

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy 02-04-2005 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by sgtclub
And this, my commie friend, is why you will remain the minority party in the near future.
I suspect you will hear many voices in the red states agreeing with me, you rich coastal snob.

sgtclub 02-04-2005 03:28 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy
you rich coastal snob.
I am undoubtedly coastal, and perhaps rich in a relative sense, but snob? How am I a snob?

sgtclub 02-04-2005 03:28 PM

Ty - Your Mailbox is Full
 
FYI

[Not anymore. -- T.S.]

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy 02-04-2005 03:32 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by sgtclub
I am undoubtedly coastal, and perhaps rich in a relative sense, but snob? How am I a snob?
You're rich and coastal, ergo....

I'll confess, I thought calling someone who supports social security a commie went out in the 30s, but you never know.

Tyrone Slothrop 02-04-2005 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by sgtclub
He does want to end the crisis. You may quibble with the how, and that is a debate that would be beneficial to all of us.
If the crisis is that we're going to be short some money in 2052, how does borrowing trillions of dollars now help end the crisis?

Hint: It doesn't, and the White House's apparent recognition of that fact was the very point of the three paragraphs you posted yesterday from the LA Times.

eta:

The paragraphs immediately before the ones you quoted make this even more clear:
  • A Bush aide, briefing reporters on the condition of anonymity, was more explicit, saying that the individual accounts would do nothing to solve the system's long-term financial problems.

    That candid analysis, although widely shared by economists, distressed some Republicans.

    "Oh, my God," one GOP political strategist said when he learned of the shift in rhetoric. "The White House has made a lot of Republicans walk the plank on this. Now it sounds as if they are sawing off the board."

LA Times, via Drum

Gattigap 02-04-2005 04:04 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Mmmm, Burger (C.J.)
They're not nonsense, because he also has reforms that would help solvency, independent of privatization, no? E.g., reducing the growth rate of benefits.
That's the other shoe, which we've heard little about. What bothers me is that up until now, I don't think we've heard much of anything from the Administration other than the assertion that private accounts would solve this problem for us. If I understand it correctly, Bush has tossed out some older Dem proposals on that issue, leaving it to Congress to try to solve the hard part while he hits the hustings to evangelize private accounts.

Quote:

That said, my biggest problem is this: I don't want to pay twice. Once to give people money to invest for their retirement. A second time when they fuck it up and we still have to give them something in retirement.
Agreed.

Gattigap 02-04-2005 04:06 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by sgtclub
And this, my commie friend, is why you will remain the minority party in the near future.
If this is the case, then Bush should stop his speech in Arkansas today to come out and say, "you know what? This entitlement is too expensive, will run out of money someday, and government shouldn't give it to you anyway. Instead, you should have [cue music]."

Tyrone Slothrop 02-04-2005 04:07 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Gattigap
That's the other shoe, which we've heard little about. What bothers me is that up until now, I don't think we've heard much of anything from the Administration other than the assertion that private accounts would solve this problem for us. If I understand it correctly, Bush has tossed out some older Dem proposals on that issue, leaving it to Congress to try to solve the hard part while he hits the hustings to evangelize private accounts.
If you wanted to fix the system, you'd strike a bipartisan deal to increase the payroll tax some, increase the cap on income subject to the tax some, and curb future benefits some. You'd get enough votes from both parties to give everyone cover. To get there, you'd have to go with incremental change, and compromise.

Needless to say, that's not what this White House is interested in.

Mmmm, Burger (C.J.) 02-04-2005 04:16 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
If you wanted to fix the system, you'd strike a bipartisan deal to increase the payroll tax some, increase the cap on income subject to the tax some, and curb future benefits some. You'd get enough votes from both parties to give everyone cover. To get there, you'd have to go with incremental change, and compromise.

Needless to say, that's not what this White House is interested in.
Cheer up. If you're right, Hillary will have the chance to solve the problem in 4 years.

Tyrone Slothrop 02-04-2005 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Mmmm, Burger (C.J.)
Cheer up. If you're right, Hillary will have the chance to solve the problem in 4 years.
The next President is going to have much more immediate problems to worry about, such as Medicare and the massive Bush deficits.

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy 02-04-2005 04:52 PM

Tomorrow's Problem Today
 
Quote:

Originally posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy
Ok, the counting is not done but the Islamic al-Sistani party appears heading for an absolute majority in Iraq. There is some chance that the first Democratically elected Islamic state in the Middle East is about to emerge in Iraq.

Assuming al-Sistani's folks end up with control of a majority in Parliament, and the ability to get to 2/3 without allying with Allawi (which also looks possible), so they can cut a deal where the Kurds get autonomy and they get an Islamic state, what should we do?

My thoughts about possible options (pick several):

(1) assume it will all work out and continue as we are (assumed temporary military presence, turn over full control of domestic affairs to the new government, keep training the Iraqi police and armed forces);
(2) assume we have to work hard and negotiate to build an alliance with al-Sistani, knowing that his people think of us as utterly untrustworthy (remember, we encouraged them to revolt and then let them get slaughtered in the first war) and this will be a long hard road; put everything about our continued role in Iraqi on the table for negotiation in a proceeding that is assumed to be adversarial;
(3) ensure continued military presence for a long time, perhaps even forcing a permanent military facility (or multiple facilities) on Iraqi soil;
(4) make sure there is adequate leadership for each faction to facilitate a future 3-way split of the country, knowing we can get one good ally (Kurdistan) and hoping for at least two;
(5) play ball with more old Baathists to strengthen the Sunni hand, but not go so far as to actively pull in the current insurgents;
(6) assume the political game is now an all-Iraqi game and do our best to make sure American businesses have significant freedom to operate in Iraq, counting on capitalism to slowly change the underlying dynamics;
(7) undermine al-Sistani in every possible way, maximizing the use of every "stick" we have to make it clear that he can manage the roads and hospitals but is not in a position to turn Iraq into an Islamic state or dictate its foreign policy; this option could include starting to actively work with and support some of the insurgents.

Any other choices? So which of these policies should Bush follow if Sistani gains a majority?

(note: I'm trying to be purely analytical, not partisan - it's just a position we may find ourselves in a couple weeks from now and I'm curious how others would handle it).
No takers from anyone on this? Am I the only one who thinks we need to figure this out?

Replaced_Texan 02-04-2005 05:01 PM

Motherfucking asshole
 
The toy version

http://img.getactivehub.com/gv2/cust...withDimes6.jpg

I think bad things would happen should this ever come into my possession.

Hank Chinaski 02-04-2005 05:06 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
If you care about the numbers, just go back to my original post to get them right:

"The actuaries predicted that the proportion of Americans over 65 -- then only 5.4 percent -- would rise to 12.65 percent in 1990, meaning that retiree costs would soar. They were just a tad high; the actual figure would be 12.49 percent."

For a fifty-year projection, that's not bad. But the bigger point is that Bush was telling people that Social Security has problems no one could have anticipated in the 1930s -- in fact, they did anticipate that people would live longer, and slightly overestimated the effect.

Then you list a bunch of other things they might not have predicted. Whatever. I think we all agree that Social Security needs to be tweaked to accommodate changed circumstances. I have no problem with telling people to work a little longer before they get benefits. But the fact remains that Bush has an ideological goal of ending Social Security, and to that end said something that wasn't true.
the only fact proven in this is that you don't understand basic math.

Tyrone Slothrop 02-04-2005 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Hank Chinaski
the only fact proven in this is that you don't understand basic math.
Well, I can't really argue with that.

sgtclub 02-04-2005 05:38 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy
You're rich and coastal, ergo....

I'll confess, I thought calling someone who supports social security a commie went out in the 30s, but you never know.
It's not the support, its thinking that the solution to every problem is more funding . .

sgtclub 02-04-2005 05:42 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
If the crisis is that we're going to be short some money in 2052, how does borrowing trillions of dollars now help end the crisis?

Hint: It doesn't, and the White House's apparent recognition of that fact was the very point of the three paragraphs you posted yesterday from the LA Times.

eta:

The paragraphs immediately before the ones you quoted make this even more clear:
  • A Bush aide, briefing reporters on the condition of anonymity, was more explicit, saying that the individual accounts would do nothing to solve the system's long-term financial problems.

    That candid analysis, although widely shared by economists, distressed some Republicans.

    "Oh, my God," one GOP political strategist said when he learned of the shift in rhetoric. "The White House has made a lot of Republicans walk the plank on this. Now it sounds as if they are sawing off the board."

LA Times, via Drum
He wants to fix the crisis and he wants personal accounts. I gave a possible answer to how personal accounts can be used to answer the solvency question, but had no takers on that one.

ltl/fb 02-04-2005 05:42 PM

Motherfucking asshole
 
Quote:

Originally posted by Replaced_Texan
The toy version

http://img.getactivehub.com/gv2/cust...withDimes6.jpg

I think bad things would happen should this ever come into my possession.
What does the hammer signify??

ltl/fb 02-04-2005 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Hank Chinaski
the only fact proven in this is that you don't understand basic math.
mmmm, meth

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy 02-04-2005 05:43 PM

Motherfucking asshole
 
Quote:

Originally posted by Replaced_Texan
The toy version

http://img.getactivehub.com/gv2/cust...withDimes6.jpg

I think bad things would happen should this ever come into my possession.
I somehow thought you were the kind of girl who would like a coin-operated boy.

Tyrone Slothrop 02-04-2005 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by sgtclub
He wants to fix the crisis and he wants personal accounts. I gave a possible answer to how personal accounts can be used to answer the solvency question, but had no takers on that one.
Please explain.

sgtclub 02-04-2005 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
If you wanted to fix the system, you'd strike a bipartisan deal to increase the payroll tax some, increase the cap on income subject to the tax some, and curb future benefits some. You'd get enough votes from both parties to give everyone cover. To get there, you'd have to go with incremental change, and compromise.

Needless to say, that's not what this White House is interested in.
I think that if reform is going to happen, you are going to see something along these lines. Some in the adminstration have already been testing the argument that a rise in the cap is not really an increased tax, which is of course, horseshit, but may be necessary.

Mmmm, Burger (C.J.) 02-04-2005 05:46 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by sgtclub
. Some in the adminstration have already been testing the argument that a rise in the cap is not really an increased tax, which is of course, horseshit, but may be necessary.
Does a rise in the cap alone solve the problem? I thought benefits were tied to how much you put in, up to the capped level. So if you raise the cap, don't you raise the liabilities as well? Or is there not a 1:1 ratio--i.e., stick it to the rich some more?

sgtclub 02-04-2005 05:48 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
Please explain.
I'm not sure if anyone has proposed this, but it seems like the math should work - even though math is hard.

X% of your SS tax goes into a private account, 100%-X% goes into the current system. When you hit the retirement age, you're benefits from the current system are reduced by the amount that your X% would have earned in the system (or even a greater percentage), but did not because it's in the private account. Assuming the private account appeciates at a higher rate than it would have under the current system, you get the benefit of the difference or the benefit of a part of the difference.

Not sure what the transition costs would be.

sgtclub 02-04-2005 05:50 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Mmmm, Burger (C.J.)
Does a rise in the cap alone solve the problem? I thought benefits were tied to how much you put in, up to the capped level. So if you raise the cap, don't you raise the liabilities as well? Or is there not a 1:1 ratio--i.e., stick it to the rich some more?
No, I think you also need to increase the retirement age and cut benefits to have a shot. I'm not sure on the ration, but I was under the impression that it was not 1:1.

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy 02-04-2005 05:50 PM

Read, Clubby, Read
 
Quote:

Originally posted by sgtclub
It's not the support, its thinking that the solution to every problem is more funding . .
I simply think that income and expense should at some point match, and that social security should represent an entitlement program that pays enough to recipients to be a basic safety net.

And Bush is challenging virtually every word in the above sentance.

Sidd Finch 02-04-2005 05:52 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by sgtclub
And this, my commie friend
Impressive rhetoric, coming from someone who wants the government to borrow 2 or 3 or 4 trillion dollars.

sgtclub 02-04-2005 05:52 PM

Read, Clubby, Read
 
Quote:

Originally posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy
I simply think that income and expense should at some point match, and that social security should represent an entitlement program that pays enough to recipients to be a basic safety net.

And Bush is challenging virtually every word in the above sentance.
I think that Bush agrees with you that the SS safety net is morally required and should pay enough to accomplish that.

Mmmm, Burger (C.J.) 02-04-2005 05:54 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by sgtclub


Not sure what the transition costs would be.
X times the number of people participating times teh amount at issue. That's basically what bush is proposing, but the problem is that all current benefits are being funded by current taxes, with some taxes going into the trust fund. If you put those extra funds into "private" accounts you're depleting the trust fund even faster. The cost of reducing liabilities in the future is decrease revenue presently.

sgtclub 02-04-2005 05:55 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Sidd Finch
Impressive rhetoric, coming from someone who wants the government to borrow 2 or 3 or 4 trillion dollars.
That's not what I want at all. What I want is a greater return on my money than I'm currently getting.

Sidd Finch 02-04-2005 05:55 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
eta:

The paragraphs immediately before the ones you quoted make this even more clear:
  • A Bush aide, briefing reporters on the condition of anonymity, was more explicit, saying that the individual accounts would do nothing to solve the system's long-term financial problems.

    That candid analysis, although widely shared by economists, distressed some Republicans.

    "Oh, my God," one GOP political strategist said when he learned of the shift in rhetoric. "The White House has made a lot of Republicans walk the plank on this. Now it sounds as if they are sawing off the board."
LA Times, via Drum

Fucking liberal media hatchet job.

First they quote a Bush aide, then a GOP strategist. Might as well get your news from Michael Moore.

Tyrone Slothrop 02-04-2005 05:55 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by sgtclub
I'm not sure if anyone has proposed this, but it seems like the math should work - even though math is hard.

X% of your SS tax goes into a private account, 100%-X% goes into the current system. When you hit the retirement age, you're benefits from the current system are reduced by the amount that your X% would have earned in the system (or even a greater percentage), but did not because it's in the private account. Assuming the private account appeciates at a higher rate than it would have under the current system, you get the benefit of the difference or the benefit of a part of the difference.

Not sure what the transition costs would be.
Let's just set aside the various issues relating to the performance of private accounts vs. the current system, and the desirability or lack thereof of the insurance function that we now have, and focus on transition costs. Money that comes in now is not invested. It's used to pay for current retirees. So doing what you propose will entail borrowing a big chunk of money. If this improves the system's finances as of 2052, this happens only at the cost of hurting our finances now. If you think the shortfall that we face in 50 years is a "crisis," it makes absolutely no sense to talk about borrow money to shift to private accounts. The conversation should be, instead, about tweaking the system in the ways discussed in other posts.

Your proposal is like my wife saying to me, we should buy a Mercedes, but I'm not sure about the costs. Well, sure. If money were no object, why not?

Mmmm, Burger (C.J.) 02-04-2005 05:57 PM

Read, Clubby, Read
 
Quote:

Originally posted by sgtclub
I think that Bush agrees with you that the SS safety net is morally required and should pay enough to accomplish that.
I don't think he does. Or at least, based on his policy agenda I have no reason to believe he does.

Private accounts, managed privately, are not a safety net. Indeed, until he also proposes a low-cost annuity that may be purchased by anyone with a private account when they reach retirement, it will certainly not be a safety net, because it makes no provision for the fact that some people will live longer than others

Tyrone Slothrop 02-04-2005 05:57 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Mmmm, Burger (C.J.)
Does a rise in the cap alone solve the problem? I thought benefits were tied to how much you put in, up to the capped level. So if you raise the cap, don't you raise the liabilities as well? Or is there not a 1:1 ratio--i.e., stick it to the rich some more?
Maybe "related," but not "tied." The more you make, the worse you do with Social Security. So, yes, there's income redistribution going on. This, of course, is why the hard-core GOPers hate it.

ltl/fb 02-04-2005 05:58 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Mmmm, Burger (C.J.)
X times the number of people participating times teh amount at issue. That's basically what bush is proposing, but the problem is that all current benefits are being funded by current taxes, with some taxes going into the trust fund. If you put those extra funds into "private" accounts you're depleting the trust fund even faster. The cost of reducing liabilities in the future is decrease revenue presently.
I thought the article linked below, which is really from the WSJ but was reprinted by something else which is helpful because I don't subscribe to WSJ online, was interesting, particularly the stuff about the level of the tax in other countries and the way that Bush has to some extent, at some times, been trying to fold the private account thing into an overall tax-preferred savings agenda. He has had a bunch of proposals for different accounts, or for multi-purpose accounts, that would allow pre-retirement withdrawals for stuff like buying houses and stuff -- the Singapore example speaks to that.

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cg...909EST0050.DTL

Sidd Finch 02-04-2005 05:58 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by sgtclub
I think that if reform is going to happen, you are going to see something along these lines. Some in the adminstration have already been testing the argument that a rise in the cap is not really an increased tax, which is of course, horseshit, but may be necessary.
But they aren't commies? What's the distinction?


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