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-   -   Election '06: Prognostication. (http://www.lawtalkers.com/forums/showthread.php?t=755)

Secret_Agent_Man 11-08-2006 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
Allen's no rube. He grew up in Newport Beach, California. The question is why he started posing as a rube when he went to Virginia. In law school he drove a pick-up truck with a Confederate flag sticker on it. WTF?
You're right that he is not a rube, but plays one on TV.

He is a smug, smiling phony and a fake tough guy. I so hope that Webb holds on to defeat him!

He also had the Confederate Flag lapel pin in his HS graduation picture. The noose on display in his law offices, etc., etc.

S_A_M

Tyrone Slothrop 11-08-2006 12:14 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
I predict the Dems gain 4 seats in the Senate (Casey, Brown, Tester or Whitehouse, and Webb) and 23 seats in the House. I would not be surprised at all for the gain to be 6 seats in the Senate (Whitehouse or Tester, and McCaskill). I would not be surprised at all if the turnover in the House is higher, perhaps by another half, but I don't think it'll be a lot lower. I have no idea about the governors races, but I hear about a Dem pick-up of 5 to 9 seats, so I'll guess 6.

The Republicans will talk a lot about how it was a bad year for incumbents, and the media will be slow to point out that not a single Democratic incumbent lost.
I think I was closer than anyone else with this. And y'all had me spooked. I was going to say +5 Senate, +30 House, but I didn't want to get ahead of myself.

SlaveNoMore 11-08-2006 12:22 PM

Quote:

Tyrone Slothrop
I think I was closer than anyone else with this. And y'all had me spooked. I was going to say +5 Senate, +30 House, but I didn't want to get ahead of myself.
It's a bad showing for the GOP, but again, it is hardly a loss of historical proportion.

The good - gridlocked spending, more conservative Dems in the House and [probably] Senate, Allen's POTUS aspirations dead

The bad - to prove bi-partisanship, the Dems and Bush will now probably sign some bogus immigration reform

the ugly - the Dem leadership, unlike its new makeup, are a bunch of lunatics. Pelosi, Conyers, Rangel, Dingell, etc. Can they hold it together are will the KOS side take over? DU is already calling for impeachment.

Mmmm, Burger (C.J.) 11-08-2006 12:36 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by SlaveNoMore

The good - gridlocked spending,

I think you'd better send Bush another pen.

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy 11-08-2006 12:40 PM

Historic Proportions
 
Quote:

Originally posted by SlaveNoMore
It's a bad showing for the GOP, but again, it is hardly a loss of historical proportion.
Let's see.

Loss of House, with a switch of about 30 seats.

Right now, losing the Senate.

Loss of at least six Governorships, mostly in big critical states. A majority of Governorships in Democratic hands.

Loss of 9 chambers in state legislatures, with 16 undecided. A majority of state legislatures now in Democratic hands.

Find another year when a party lost a majority in the House, Senate, state houses, and legislatures all at once.

Or find another year when a party couldn't get a turnover in any one Congressional seat, governorship or Senate Seat.

And, for the Dems, this means there have been net gains in Congress each of the last four years.

And, for the icing on the cake, John Kerry has been eliminated as a 2008 contender - now for the Rs, that has really got to hurt.

Mmmm, Burger (C.J.) 11-08-2006 12:54 PM

Historic Proportions
 
Quote:

Originally posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy


Find another year when a party lost a majority in the House, Senate, state houses, and legislatures all at once.
1994? Not to minimize the significant--it is--but 1994 was more so. The House switched for the first time in 40 years. And the Senate switched, albeit only 8 years after a previous shift. And governors too.

What made that more significant as well is that it was in Clinton's second year, not his sixth.

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy 11-08-2006 01:48 PM

Historic Proportions
 
Quote:

Originally posted by Mmmm, Burger (C.J.)
1994? Not to minimize the significant--it is--but 1994 was more so. The House switched for the first time in 40 years. And the Senate switched, albeit only 8 years after a previous shift. And governors too.

What made that more significant as well is that it was in Clinton's second year, not his sixth.
House and Senate were big shifts (bigger than this year), but I don't think there this kind of shift in the states. Someone correct me if I'm wrong. While the Rs took some more corner offices, was that a year that the majority of governships switched? I thought the Rs took the corner offices and legislatures first, and then took Congress (including with a number of redistricting shifts).

The shift in the states may be the most overlooked part of this election.

Mmmm, Burger (C.J.) 11-08-2006 02:01 PM

Historic Proportions
 
Quote:

Originally posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

The shift in the states may be the most overlooked part of this election.
Before I posted, I think I learned Rs picked up 12 governorships in 1994. but that was a very quick review.

I agree on your last point. One caveat--in governors, the +6 isn't quite as big when half of that is Mass., NY and MD, which were more oddballs for having republicans in for as long as they did.

On legislatures, I did read an article before the election about its importance re redistricting in 2010--perhaps a bit premature, since that won't happen until 2 election cycles of state legislatures, but it's still significant. I suspect that's a secondary effect that will get more play in the coming weeks.

SlaveNoMore 11-08-2006 02:07 PM

Historic Proportions
 
Quote:

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy
Let's see.

Loss of House, with a switch of about 30 seats.

Right now, losing the Senate.

Loss of at least six Governorships, mostly in big critical states. A majority of Governorships in Democratic hands.

Loss of 9 chambers in state legislatures, with 16 undecided. A majority of state legislatures now in Democratic hands.

Find another year when a party lost a majority in the House, Senate, state houses, and legislatures all at once.

Or find another year when a party couldn't get a turnover in any one Congressional seat, governorship or Senate Seat.

And, for the Dems, this means there have been net gains in Congress each of the last four years.

And, for the icing on the cake, John Kerry has been eliminated as a 2008 contender - now for the Rs, that has really got to hurt.
Check the numbers - it isnt small, but it's hardly epic.

SlaveNoMore 11-08-2006 02:09 PM

Quote:

Mmmm, Burger (C.J.)
I think you'd better send Bush another pen.
One more point, now that the Dems are "in" - how soon before the soaring economy stops appearing on page 14 of the NYT and WaPo and all of a sudden is the top story?

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy 11-08-2006 02:11 PM

Historic Proportions
 
Quote:

Originally posted by Mmmm, Burger (C.J.)
Before I posted, I think I learned Rs picked up 12 governorships in 1994. but that was a very quick review.

I agree on your last point. One caveat--in governors, the +6 isn't quite as big when half of that is Mass., NY and MD, which were more oddballs for having republicans in for as long as they did.

On legislatures, I did read an article before the election about its importance re redistricting in 2010--perhaps a bit premature, since that won't happen until 2 election cycles of state legislatures, but it's still significant. I suspect that's a secondary effect that will get more play in the coming weeks.
They're both important years; 1994 was the year the Democrats finally lost the South, which had been a long time coming, and 2006 is the year the Republicans saw their already anemic Northern moderate wing take a blow just as fatal.

And it looks like the Governors offices did shift in 1994 - bad memory on that one. I don't know about the state houses.

leagleaze 11-08-2006 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
My grandmother lives in Pennsylvania and has severe short-term memory loss. She loathes Rick Santorum. Over the next few days, she gets to learn, again and again, that Santorum has lost. She's going to be so happy.
You don't have to have short term memory problems to be giddy over that one. Every time I see it I laugh. I don't know who voted for the man, but most everyone seems to be dancing in the streets about the fact he is gone. Even here in conservative land. Heck my boss is wearing a blue tie and we did a little dance together. And neither one of us dances.

Flinty_McFlint 11-08-2006 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by SlaveNoMore
One more point, now that the Dems are "in" - how soon before the soaring economy stops appearing on page 14 of the NYT and WaPo and all of a sudden is the top story?
I would say as soon as Bush leads us to victory, I mean, democracy in Iraq.

SlaveNoMore 11-08-2006 02:31 PM

Quote:

Flinty_McFlint
I would say as soon as Bush leads us to victory, I mean, democracy in Iraq.
They already have democracy in Iraq. Free and open elections.

I don't think you said what you really meant.

Flinty_McFlint 11-08-2006 02:34 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by SlaveNoMore
They already have democracy in Iraq. Free and open elections.

I don't think you said what you really meant.
I guess my definition of democracy differs. That's cool, you're still tops with me.


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