Odds Update
 

Ty's right that it has had somemajor swings, and Slave is wrong that the current numbers are high for bush. He's been bouncing between 295 and 330 depending on a few states. He won't have that bad a debate again, so unless the number drops this week, Ty owes me money!

Odds Update
 

I'm not convinced of this. He no good at it. Everyone marvels that he did so well against Gore in 2000. He didn't, it just seemed that way because Gore was a complete freak.

The Silence of the Blogosphere
 

SlaveNoMore's post was written in jest and should not have been posted or broadcast. Em regrets the error, which occurred because of fatigue and bad judgment, not malice.

Odds Update
 

I heard an analysis on NPR that suggested that he lost a lot of ground in the 2000 election in the last month or so of the campaign, and he isn't really known as a very good closer. They didn't really go into whether or not the debates with Gore played a role. I can't imagine that Gore made up ground on the debates alone, though.

Kerry, on the other hand, apparently does very well on the home stretch. That is sort of supported in Kerry's performance in the primaries. He was so far behind in January that he nearly shut down the campaign, and then just swept in in February and March to take the lead. Obviously, Dean's deterioration was part of that, but to come back from so far behind was rather remarkable.

The Silence of the Blogosphere
 

Oh, you mean the days of days of Rather standing by his story.

And his continued denial [to this day] that the documents are fake?

Yeah, okay.

Odds Update
 

Gore made up ground with the drunk driving story.

The Silence of the Blogosphere
 

Bulshit. Cite please.

This is what he said:

"Now, after extensive additional interviews, I no longer have the confidence in these documents that would allow us to continue vouching for them journalistically... We made a mistake in judgment, and for that I am sorry. It was an error that was made, however, in good faith and in the spirit of trying to carry on a CBS News tradition of investigative reporting without fear or favoritism."

Nothing about the documents being fake. Nothing about the Lockhart conflict of interest. Nothing about Mary Mapes longstanding history of aggressively promoting stories with false information.

And his "good faith" statement - when they broke every journalistic standard possible and didn't consult with a single document expert - is laughable.

Odds Update
 

I went to the DMV today to renew my tabs, and there were at least 15 people waiting in line to register to vote. I've never seen anything like it. If these people remember to actually cast a ballot (the $64,000 question), Kerry ought to win by at least five points.

Wonder how many of those people went to see Springsteen, the Dixie Chixxx or the other pro-Dem concerts this weekend?

The Silence of the Blogosphere
 

Hey, I'm just trying to follow you. From "refuse to apologize" until "apologized days later." Check. Makes him monumentally stupid, but that's not the point. I'll give you that Fox had the memory of Rathergate, the good sense (and ability) to obliterate the web pages quickly once discovered.

Holy shit. He still says they're genuine? Let's see what he said in his apology.

Yeah, okay.

Odds Update
 

Repeat. It's Playoffs time. No one is gonna watch them.

The Silence of the Blogosphere
 

Um, I think that when he says he no longer has "the confidence in these documents that would allow us to continue vouching for them journalistically," I think that he's not saying they're genuine anymore. That, you know, they might be ... um ... fake.

Sure, this apology doesn't come with him wearing a mask over his head, and lying prostrate and naked, so it may not satisfy all of his critics. Nevertheless, I think it covers the basics.

more polls
 

Zogby: Bush 46, Kerry 45 (LVs)
Gallup: Bush 49, Kerry 47 (RVs)
LA Times: Kerry 49, Bush 47 (RVs)
Newsweek: Kerry 49, Bush 46 (RVs)

Take all of these polls with a grain of salt. Kerry fans should look at this article for an explanation of why things are better for the Dems than these numbers might suggest. Bush fans will be happier if they don't read the piece.

The Silence of the Blogosphere
 

Translation: Yes.

Buck up, pinstripe boy
their pitching may be weak, but
they've still got lumber

Odds Update
 

No men maybe, and Bush already leads by a large margin of men. Most women will not be watching and Bush is doing far better among women than he did in 2000.

I'm not sure why you have the confidence that you do. I hope it's true, but my gut tells me that the race is tightening.

Odds Update
 

This doesn't help him. Bush ain't going to look as bad in the next debate as he did in the first one. In fact, if everyone watches the playoffs, it will actually hurt W -- becuase then no one will see his stunning return to coherence (See e.g. Ronald Reagan's second debate in 1984).