I agreed with the rest of this posting but I think this bit hit the hammer right on the head of nail. I generally support what the Bush administration is doing but these are valid points. The administration is being hypocritical, because it is not supporting democracy in Pakistan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. However, I don't think we really want democracy in these countries. In general we should push for democracy but sometimes maybe democracy is not a good thing. But again, my position is the height of hypocrisy. Does anyone think we would be better off if Saudi Arabia or Pakistan were democratic?

Syria out of Lebanon
 

Per a post a couple weeks ago, Club is under the impression that Lebanon is/was as totalitarian state, where the oppressed populace lived in fear of a dominating government.

{Not to say that some weren't oppressed . . .}

S_A_M

efs

Syria out of Lebanon
 

I still think that's true - they live in fear of Syria.

I don't have a specific cite, but it is like asking me to cite support for the fact that most Republicans support tax cuts. Or cite support for the fact that most Argentinians think the Falklands should be part of Argentina. Or Spanish that think Gibrarltar should be part of Spain. I saw an episode of nightline where the reporter in Eqypt was trying to find just one Arab who thought Israel had a right to exist. He could not. Everytime I have traveled in in an Arab country I always get asked about the US support of Israel and how could America support Israel. I have never even met a Christian arab that supports Isreal. Can you cite me any poll that shows any support for Isreal in an Arab country?

Cf. Zogby (yes, the pollster oft cited on these boards), What Arabs Think -- this is a 2002 book based on extensive research and polling.

We're going to start looking to Spanky for a conservative realist's perspective on the board, Clubby, and assume you're giving us the neo-con wish-think angle.

Unless, that is, you can come up with as good a reality-based cite for the contrary position, that Democracy in Iraq is leading (not theoretically will lead, sometime after Bush has left office, after we are all dead, or once Global warming has put Washington under 10 feet of water) to a softening of attitudes toward Israel.

(editted to fix spelling and insert additional vituperative little zingers).

I don't think most Americans realize this, but a large percentage of Arabs, see Arabia (that is from Mauritania or Morocco to Iraq and Syria down to Yemen) as a nation that has just not been unified politically yet. They see Israel as occupying part of the heart of the Arab nation. Many refer to Israel has the knife in the heart of Arabia. The hostility towards Isreal in the rest of the Muslim world is more religious and therefor not as intense (or at least less universal). Turkey in fact supports isreal. Eventhough the Iranian government is hostile to Isreal, there are many Iranians that support Isreal (mainly because it sticks it to the Arabs who they hate). But to the Arabs it is a nationalistic issue - so even Christian Arabs (coptics, Caldeans etc), and other non-mulim Arabs are strongly opposed to Isreal.

I think it's an issue mostly because it's been used to deflect popular anger from the ME despots. If you subjugate your people and trash their lives, it's good to give them something external to hate. Israel has been a good target for that, and the constant whine from Arafat has gone far in helping the rest of the ME keep the lid on. But, once (if?) the Palestinians start becoming a merged society, a lot of that goes away.

As to, do we really want democracy in those tyrant states, I think we do, and it's gonna be hell for a while once they get there. It's like working an industrial pressure vessel, and realizing that the relief is stuck closed - you know you have to knock if free, and there's gonna be a dangerous explosive mess when you do that, but you need to do it, because otherwise the pressure's only going up.

I agree with you that the despots use Isreal to divert attention from themselves. But I disagree with you that they need to fan the flames. I think that is the big myth. If you really undestand the Arab view, you can see that they see Israel as a foreigh occupation of Arab land. They view the fact that original residents of palestine are not allowed to return and any western jew can go there as a form of ethnic cleansing of Arab land. All the peace treaties are highly unpopular throughout the Arab world. If you have democratic countries in Arabia that have to respond to the public's wishes they will be less inclined to work with Israel. The current governments have practical reasons to work with (Even if behind the scenes) with Isreal. Democratic governments, that need the support of their populations, will have less of an incentive to work with the Israelis. Democracy may bring Arab political unity, and then Isreal will find itself surrounding by one hugely hostile Arab nation.

Hunh. I thought it was like bees.

Mmmmm, honey.

Freedom on the March
 

I'm glad you've found another Quote, Hank. Embrace it with both arms and squeeze tight.

After the strength of the Dean quote started to fade, several of us became worried about you, because we all know that The Quote serves an essential role in your persona, in order to effectively communicate many things with one simple macro -- whether it's disdain for the broader political party tangentially connected to your quote, observations about mild hunger pangs you experience in the middle of the day, or simply to inform the rest of the class that you need to go pee.

God, you are so last year.

A couple things: this stuff about Palestinian's becoming a "merged" society, who wants them to merge with whom? A few Palestinians may cling to the notion that Israel should become a Democratic secular state, but I don't think the Jewish Israelis want a merger - and the demographic shift that would go with it.

And the explosion -- are you suggesting that it's no big deal if this new democratic Iraq decides to take the offensive against Israel? Or are you thinking the explosion may blow somewhere else?

I agree with you 100%. That is why I consider myself a Neo-Con. However, I don't think my fellow Neo-Cons really appreciate the ramification of what they wish for. I don't think a democratic middle east is in the US short term strategic interests (long term yes - short term no). On one hand I would like to see the middle East democratic, but if it does become democratic I will really fear for the security of Israel. In other words, for the safety of the Jews in Israel. I am afriad that these jews that have been fleeing persecution all over the world are going from the frying pan into the fire. Right now the US Immigration turns down Jewish applications for Assylum from religious persecution (like from Russia) because we believe they can go to Israel. I don't think Isreal is a safe place for Jews and we should let them come here if they want to.

Or, the rest of the Arab nation could find itself with one huge and hostile Shi'a empire to its east, looking to spread the word.

At the moment, my greatest fear is that an Iranian/Iraqi polity could result from pushing this little domino; I'm not sure whether Iraqi Shi'as see themselves more as Arab or Shi'a. Of course, this conflict is something Israel could probably live with for the moment.

"Merged" was probably not a good word choice. I simply mean, it becomes a functioning society within the larger world, not standing out because of conflict but interacting with and comfortable next to its neighbors, with no sense of some outstanding wrong that needs righting.

I think the explosion is going to be big, and I'm really hoping that the Israel-Palestinian conflict can be turned down to a simmer by the time it happens. I agree that the Arab world does view Israel as the interloper, the invader of holy land - but, at the same time, I think that if the Palestinians aren't actively pushing that theme, there's room for it to go away (in a relative sense - there will always be SOME anger about it.) Then, the steam will point elsewhere - maybe to the corrupt influences that have kept most of society poor and powerless. Frankly, I see an initial rise in Marxism in the region.

there's only one reason Iraq or Syria or whatever doesn't "take the offensive against Israel." they know they would suffer a devastating and humiliating defeat.

the best solution to the whole problem is getting to some Pali state and letting people move beyond. It may take a generation, but sooner the hate has to lessen especially if the peple have some hope for bettering temselves otherwise.

I do have a strong fear that the only way we're going to ultimately make the ME into a peaceful good neighbor is going to involve moving Israelites. I have no idea how this could be done. Another Mandate? Give them Miami?

Obviously, this is not scientific, but I have traveled a great deal in the middle east and many of my business partners are middle eastern, and I would say nationalism runs deeper. During the Iran-Iraq war Khomeini tried to get the Shia in southern Iraq to arise but they did not. It seems that you have an affinity for people that speak the same language as you as opposed to people of the same faith. I have know Arabs of many faiths and they all hang out together. I have also know many persians of different faiths and they all hang out together. You don't see Arabs and Persians hanging out much. Therefore I don't see Shia Iraq breaking off and joining Persia.

Agree. They're actually the same faith - just recognize different sets of leaders. There are more points in common than not. It's a small and artificial distinction that's been amplified for personal gain.

New Board Motto.

I think the increasing successes of Radical Islam, however, change the equation, and lead to the possibility of some form of very close alliance between Iran and either all of Iraq or just the Shi'a portion.

I am not Jewish so I don't have a bias here, but sending all those Russian jews to Israel was a huge waste. They were the educated elite of Russia. Now you have doctors and concert pianists working as janitors in Isreal. Israel has too many educated people. Most of these Russian Jews tried to come here and we turned them down. I don't know about anyone else, but I think we could always use more cultured, educated and talented people. Anyone seen Jerry Springer lately?

Ain't that the truth. My position may just be wishful thinking.

Isn't a lot of the midwest unpopulated or getting there?

um.. yeah.. just like that...

Ad(I know what you mean, but, um, huh?)der

It's not the Arab view. It is the truth.

Which, btw, does not make it inappropriate.

Oddly, I am more hopeful of the effect of democracy. But your point is not unfounded.

I don't know how many times I have to say it, but I am not a conservative.

I thought he was referring to something other than the general feeling of Arabs, i.e., that there is something inherent in the new government that made it especially antagonistic to Israel.

As opposed to where it is today?

Let's give them the whole state of Florida. It sucks anyway. One giant strip mall. But the weather is good.

You understate the importance of the proper succession of the caliphate.

eta: That's meant as a joke. I know its not funny, but never say i don't mock all religions equally.

Adam Carolla on Stern about 10/1/2001. give the jews the Baja desert.

Danger there is, they revitalize the entire Mexican countryside, eclipse us in economic performance, and we become simply a more boring Canada.

(I've always been impressed with Israeli econ performance in tough areas.)

Freedom on the March
 

I am a sufficient deadbeat as to not know how much money that is, but you are on.

Note, however, that I said there would be U.S. troops in Syria and Lebanon, not that we would necessarily invade.

The problem is the Arabs have never been able to act in concert thereby making them pretty much powerless. In addition, Egypt - against its peoples desires - has reached an accomadation with israel. A united Arab state would have all the wealth and military technology of the Gulf states (and possibly Algeria, Iraq and Libya), Egypts large military force with its professional officer corp, all the Palestianians of Jordan that can't wait to fight, the sympathizers in the West Bank and Gaza, the strategic advantage of completely surrounding Israel and the ability to coordinate all those assets under a unified military command. If that wasn't enough, they could cut off any allies of Isreal from 80 percent of the known world Oil Reserves. A united democratic Arab state is pretty much Israel's worst nightmare.

BTW - I asked about a Democrat Arabia at a forum where both Wolfowitz and Bill Kristol were on the panel. Their position was

1) They did not believe that Arab nationalisim was very strong and was being replaced by local nationalism (Iraqi, Syrian nationalism etc.)
2) Anti - Israeli sentiment was being whipped up by the dictatorial regimes and therefore would not be as strong in a Democracy
3) Once the Arabs started making money they would be less inclined to worry about Israel. And in the interest of becoming prosperous they would decide to trade with Israel.

I have a lot of respect for both these men but in this case I don't think they could be more wrong. I think their love and hope for the state of Israel has twisted their perception of the situation.

Most of Bilmore's better similes come from his days in the Merchant Marine, circa 1934.

I am afraid that a secular Arab nationalism is being replaced by fundamentalist Islam. The changes in some of these countries has been fairly dramatic.

You laugh, from ignorance of course, but of my times, my time afore' the mast was the best of all of them.

http://store1.yimg.com/I/zhemgang_1775_35831354

Everyone is afraid of this. The question is what to do. The effort to start democracy in the ME is perhaps somewhat desparate- but the alternative is to wait for the fundamentalists to get so strongly entrenched that some massive war becomes inevitable. I fear my grandchildren will see some version of WWIII with (Islam v. The rest) as the sides.
Don't you- or is there some other solution you see.?

And to the "We are making it worse" crowd- before Iraq Osama was one of the most popular names for baby boys in Islamic countries, 80% of Saudi TV audiences believe the US did 9/11 to itself, etc. "Worse" needs to be seen in context.