Finally, Some Good News
 

I agree with your sentiment, if not your particular reasoning or level of conviction. I don't support Hillary, largely because I'm fucking sick and tired of having another national conversation about whether a Clinton or a Bush sucks worse. It will have been 20 years - can't we move on to an argument over whether some other President sucks?

That said, I fear that Hillary will get the nomination. Many, though not all as you allege, of her supporters will be bubble-headed.

Finally, Some Good News
 

2. Rudy's not liked in NYC, and NYC never votes GOP in a Pres election.

Hillary could win PA easily. The lowest common denominator of "gimme my social security and drugs and keep them Mexicans out" contingent is very high in this state. Half the fucking state is on worker's compensation and has union cards or is old and undereducated.

Finally, Some Good News
 

Obama is going to outraise her this quarter, in total $$$ and # of donations.

Finally, Some Good News
 

she loses outside the city, even if hitler ran against her. Rudy will draw well in the city, he doesn't need to win it.

Finally, Some Good News
 

Yep. I also take heart in the argument that his current stall in the polls is due to Hillary (a) being better known nationally, and (b) having the Hillary machine behind her, both advantages which will erode the farther we get into the fall.

Finally, Some Good News
 

But the city is where the people are. As far as I know, NY is not on the electoral college system.

Finally, Some Good News
 

There's a debate there? I thought the ranking was pretty simple:

1. Bush I and Clinton (tie)
2. Bush II

We can't forget, however, that a president's economic record is usually gifted to him by the circumstances he walks into. Clinton did well in this regard, but deserves much credit for behaving like a good moderate fiscal Republican throughout his time in office. I like the fact that he was self-centered and only concerned with polls because that caused him to do things that pleased his constituents in the center. His wife does not draw from the same crowd and the circumstances she enters are different. There is much damage that can be done if we install an ideologue bent on allowing govt's nanny roll to be expanded at cost to us.

The solutions to the problems are always less govt. And by that I also mean also drawing down our defense expenditures and taking a more limited role abroad. This pump priming the defense industry and others that contract with DC by adding new depts and programs is not a solution. Bush should privatize as many govt functions as he can, but he should not create new ones simply to add to the list of things we can pay Halliburton or Boeing or Lockheed to do.

But fuck it. The Dems have the solution, right? Tax the piss out of private equity and raise the capital gains rate. Cazart! A magic bullet... Dumb bastards.

Finally, Some Good News
 

Hilary has always done well upstate, especially in Western New York and the low- to mid- Hudson Valley. Rudy would take Long Island, and might win the Rome/Syracuse/Utica belt, but he'd lose Buffalo and be lucky to draw in Rochester and the Finger Lakes.

No way Hilary loses NY. The fight would be Pennsylvania/Ohio/Michigan/Wisc./Florida, and she has a good Florida base.

Finally, Some Good News
 

ohio? please. florida? she kissed arafat- that'll cause the old Jews to pay attention to the chads they're punching. and trust me, she loses Mi. sebby, she won't win a traditional union state. won't happen. Pa is R the moment she is nominated.

Again, I am the only one here that ever actually worked in politics. Why you all argue with me is beyond me, and frankly beyond the boundaries of sanity, but let me just say this- GGG, please, go work to get hillary nominated. i may even donate.

Finally, Some Good News
 

He's a much better candidate but equally unelectable. The old vote the most. This is one of the last elections where the remaining die hard racists and soft racists who don't openly discrminate but would be uncomfrotable with a black president will still be alive to cast ballots. That's an ugly fact, but one he isn't escaping.

It's also the least of his problems. He's inexperienced, looks too young and will probably have a hard time translating his fuzzy platform to concrete policies because he enjoys a lot of his popularity right now because no one really understands what he stands for and he gets to look like he's above the fray when the other candidates get shrill with one another on detailed policy points. He's only getting the better of Hillary and Edwards right now because he's (a) much smarter than both and (b) in a category of public speaking ability about five rungs above both. Barack's as good as Bill Clinton was on his feet, but that's only going to get him so far. To get enough moderate votes to win he's going to have to tack to the center, which may confuse and alienate a lot of people who got behind him for what they think he stands for because of his color. He knows the future, both politically and policy-wise is the center, and he's trying to figure out how how to drag the left wing of his supporters to that point. He knows Hillary Care can't be achieved and he knows he's going to have to level with the "gimme my benefits" crowd soon, and when he does it will hurt him.

He's really running for 2112.

Finally, Some Good News
 

Didn't you predict Republicans would maintain control of Congress in '06?

Finally, Some Good News
 

If you'd worked in politics, you'd look at past numbers combined with polling to figure this stuff out.

I'm not ready to back Hillary, but dismissing her doesn't make sense either. But one reason to back Obama is that I do think he would win Michigan, while I fear it being a battleground state with Hill, and I think Ohio is a battleground state for both of them.

But go check some Florida numbers. Hillary plays in Florida.

Finally, Some Good News
 

I blame the teachers unions.

Finally, Some Good News
 

The hardline old GOP voters in the counties of PA are dying of and leaving unemployed union workers in their place. Trust me. PA is not turning red. It's going from blueish purple to royal navy blue. They're raising powere prices across the stae right now and the lower middle class is infuriated. Their battle cry is "Why deregulation? So we can make some more Wall St people rich?"

David Brooks wrote a great column a few weeks back about the ignorance of the sort of people who fill PA. He was explaining them in the context of their fear of immigration. I can't recall the title, but if you look his name up, I'm sure you'll find it. He drew a perfect picture of PA. AND we have Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, which are as blue as it gets. AND Ed Rendell as our governor. Hillary will win this state. Close, but she will win.

Finally, Some Good News
 

They're also secretly the force behind congestion pricing.