Election '06: Prognostication.
 

What will the make-up of the Senate and the House be after the November elections? Who's going to win? Who's going to lose? And how about those gubernatorial races?

Election '06: Prognostication.
 

So, Ty, what are your bets?

Mine:

Senate: 50 Rs, 48 Ds, 2 Is who caucus with Ds
House: 218 Rs, 217 Ds

Pickups in both, but not enough to put the Ds over the top. Dems pick up house control in special elections over the next year.

No strong views on the Guvs at this point.

Election '06: Prognostication.
 

Dem wins House

GOP wins Senate

We all lose.

Election '06: Prognostication.
 

Wow. Rangel really does have you spooked.

Election '06: Prognostication.
 

2. But we don't really lose. The people who lose are those who vote Dem thinking the Dems can somehow recapture a New Deal wage package and benefits for them.

Those days, those benefits, those wages - gone. Burned up for the next 200 years, until foreign labor costs rise to meet American labor costs.

The Dems are the most hideous liars of all - they're telling the entitlement junkies who vote for them that they can protect wages and "win" something for the middle class. As though they could fight global economic forces...

Election '06: Prognostication.
 

Pfeh. About the most they'll do is put a minimum wage raise on the table. I know that minimum wage laws threaten the end of civilization, but stay calm -- it's only a threat.

As for Iraq, etc. -- about all the Dems can do is raise questions and a fuss. Hopefully, they'll do that in a way that forces the admin to be a little more rational and a little more honest. (Viz. Bush, today, acknowledging that maybe things in Iraq aren't going all that splendidly -- and not blaming it on the media.)

Hopefully the Dems won't proceed to organize a circular firing squad.

Election '06: Prognostication.
 

Interesting. We've gone from "Message: I care" to "Message: I know."

Election '06: Prognostication.
 

I'm putting a lot of faith in Nancy Pelosi for that, and I hope I'm not wrong.

I think that, despite Rangel's desires and Slave's fears, Pelosi wouldn't let him cut off war funding (if only because it would ultimately be politically devastating for the Dems and she is smart enough to see that). Force some compromises, yes -- actual negotiations between politicians of different parties. Radical freaking thought.

S_A_M

Election '06: Prognostication.
 

Charlie - besides always being a hoot on the talk circuit - is always good for the big ceremonial act.

Remember, this is the guy that put up draft legislation a year or two back.

The only thing that'll happen in the next two years if one of the chambers flips will be the months of endless hearings and the coverage of people trying to dodge congressional subpeonas using "executive privilege" as their excuse.

Election '06: Prognostication.
 

If this were only true. They can't put up all sorts of trade barriers and restrictions to try and prevent outsourcing etc. and in the end they will just hurt our competitiveness"

All they will do is cut off funding and encourage the insurgents. Then Iraq will become the quagmire they are pretending it is now (we haven't even gotten to ten percent of the casualties we have had in every other war this century) - except of course Guld War One. If you assume the war has cost 300 billion, that is just a little over ten percent of one years budget. We spend more money on farm subsidies. In terms of percentages of GNP by far the cheapest war this century - except of course Gulf War I.

My Bet
 

My bet

52 Rs in Senate.
221 Rs in the House.

Election '06: Prognostication.
 

Not saying he wouldn't try it.

S_A_M

My Bet
 

That's about what I bet Hank (1 month board support).

Come to think of it, I'm not sure what his counter-position was -- except that I might be wrong . . . wpp.

S_A_M

2. Repeat of 97-99.

My Bet
 

I like you even more now that I know you've access to really good weed. I'll be visiting.

My Bet
 

My door is always open to you. Although I charge double for people that hail from fly over states.

My Bet
 

If you're visiting the cow-town where Spanky lives, you'll need it.

[come to think of it, this explains the 3 foot jack rabbit sightings]

Senate: 51R/47D+2I
House: 216R/219D

My Bet
 

It is a cow town, but what is even more screwed up is that you can't buy a one bedroom house for less than a million dollars in this cow town.

Related question.

How many of these contests are going to be settled by litigation?

Can I say that it's just fucked up how (a) crappy and (b) politicized our elections officials are in so many places?

I Wonder
 

How the Democrats would answer if I asked them to list 5 policies which would counter this meathook reality:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...439766,00.html

ETA: For purposes of the exercise, protectionist measures cannot be utilized. (since they're patently absurd responses).

I Wonder
 

Why just the Dems? How have the Republicans answered that reality?

I Wonder
 

Speaking for myself, here's some I'd like to see:

(i) Embrace the brain drain -- open up more immigration from India, China and other countries for tech and scientific workers, students, entrepreneurs;

(ii) Move the social security tax burden to the general tax base -- most countries don't impose this cost on goods being exported; we ought to find a way to shift it as well; it's a regressive tax as well;

(iii) Teach more foreign languages and at younger ages;

(iv) Comprehensive education reform to encourage more creativity and problem solving, including more equitable funding and less teaching to the test;

(v) Focus on planting the seeds in industries that will play to strength - like biotech (see PB discussion on stem cells). The private sector can take the products out to market, but the basic research has often been accomplished here in academia, research hospitals, and with government support, and that needs to continue. Putting up artificial barriers to reseach has to end.

I'll let you work out the details. But tell me what the Rs have accomplished on this score with both houses and the oval office?

I Wonder
 

we actually educate tons of tech and science workers. a problem is a high percentage are from foreign countries. It gets especially high when one looks at grad degrees. I always thought it was because US students get a BS and have a decent job here. Foreign students are not in a hurry to go home, so they stay for 1 more degree.

This is why patent attorneys have such lucratives careers. It is hard for young people to resist the lure of a decent job and continue in school.

Tax breaks or loan relief for US citizens who get grad degrees.

and this will help the old middle class- those with a HS diploma- how?

Are the Rs still fighting the Texas ruling not to place DeLay's successor candidate on the ballot?

And are they going to drop the fight to get Foley's replacement on the ballot?

Because that's two there.

The ads telling voters how to write in "S-H-E-L-L-E-Y S-E-K-U-L-A G-I-B-B-S" on the electronic ballot have been kinda funny.

Election '06: Prognostication.
 

Yes, and what exactly happened to that bill? My quick Google search reveals that it failed by a vote of 402 to 2, with even Rangel voting against.

Do you really expect that Rangel will seriously try -- not just talk about, but try -- to cut off funding for troops in battle? Or that, if he does try, it'll get anywhere?

Election '06: Prognostication.
 

Wow -- the House really has an awful lot of power. I had no idea.

Especially if it has a slim majority of Dems, who as we know are uniformly disciplined and always march in step.



This is such a crock of shit that even you should be able to figure that out. How many Dems have actually called for cutting off funding?

As for encouraging the insurgents -- I thought that was Bush's plan? Y'know, "bring it on"?

And as for the cost of the war, it's exceeded projections by a factor of--- 10? 100? To argue now that "it's still kinda cheap" is pretty lame, even for you. And is it cheaper than Kosovo? Afghanistan? I mean, you aren't even right about the "this century" part, and the century is only 6 years old.

I Wonder
 

They haven't. They've told people "You're on your own. This is a global market reality. Find a way to survive." A lot of Americans don't want to hear that. So the Democrats offer these people futile salves like min wage increases, or vague allusions to protectionist measures.

It's a trick question. There is no solution. We're going through a massive long term socioeconomic correction. At least the GOP has the pragmatic sense to let the economic forces do their thing and not try to prevent the inveitable. All the Dems offer is short term fixes.

Election '06: Prognostication.
 

So he voted for it, until he voted against it.

I guess John Kerry doesn't have a monopoly on that front

Election '06: Prognostication.
 

When I consider a "dry drunk" like W and grandstanding opportunist like Rangel (both of whom have oddly similar shit-eating grins*), I have to wonder whether politicians are like lawyers - they fight it out and then laugh with one another after the decision, comfortable in the knowledge that the winner gets a great gig... And the loser gets an even more lucrative lobbying gig.

Its hard for me not to think these whores fight in front of us and yuk yuk it up when they're done. Is it naive of me to think Chuck and W probably get along smashingly, both fattened nicely on at the govt money trough?

* What a dumb term. I wouldn't be grinning in that situation.

Election '06: Prognostication.
 

Keep that stuff QT, but of course you're right. go to
www.bridgeoflove.com and look for further instructions. your kid blond hair blue eyes? wigs/contacts before the 3rd b-day.

I Wonder
 

How about just teaching them to read and write. And to do math. Teaching for the test is a nice mantra put forward by the Teachers Union, but at this point we are just talking about tests for adding and subtracting. In Asia they test up the yin yang, because that is the only way to determine whether or not they are being taught.

The more a country tests, the better their students perform. You test and if you don't pass the test you don't move on. Yes it is stressful for students but its a tough world out there.

I Wonder
 

We have been running a trade deficit since the 1970s. People keep saying that it will destroy America but our economy still keeps outperforming the rest of the developed world. Its getting tough because everyone else is figuring out how to play the game.

The only thing we can do is improve our education system and make sure our internal market is business friendly.

I Wonder
 

It is simply a poor way to teach, and doesn't play to our strength, which has been inventiveness and creativity. Do you have kids and watch what the teaching to the test does to the school system.

I note, no defense here of the Rs having done squat with their term, other than Sebby's "We gave up and we should have" response. Pshaw.

I Wonder
 

how many kids with just a hs diploma will your bio-tech plan employ?

I Wonder
 

Exactly the point.

I Wonder
 

so your "plan" is to give the entire middle class a technical dgree. hmmm. will that be free like your health plan?