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Originally posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy
It's going to be interesting to see the state-by-states. It's clear that Bush got a bump from the convention and that the media is playing his tune. What's still not clear to me is how well that tune plays where.
So, polls from the South and some of the West (inc. the important state of New Mexico) are showing a big boost. But, no impact in Michigan and minimal bump in some key states like Minnesota. It looks like Bush successfully played to his base, betting that this election is all about your base. It also looks like he is parlaying that into a broader sense that he is on top, a smart thing to do.
If I'm Kerry, I would now try to push Bush as close to his base as I can, and take the middle ground. The alternative is to play to Kerry's own base, which could shore him up in the mid-west and a smattering of other states, but would likely concede Florida, perhaps Tennesse, and potentially some of the Western states that are in play. I'm kind of guessing Sasso goes for the base-shoring approach.
But, the key is, where do the state-by-states come in over the next few days, because if I'm right, Bush's boost in the national polls will translate into a much smaller boost in the electoral college.
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PA will go Democrat. Fast Eddy will bring it in. Trust me... Philly will get 95% voter turnout in every important Dem district. Pittsburgh's economy is faltering - it will also go Dem.
The battle will be FL and OH. Ohio bores me, so I don't read about it, but I hear its close. FL will be interesting. Jeb better get that federal hurricane money pouring in asap. I also wonder how many voting machines/voting facilities in FL were damaged by the hurricanes...
