Quote:
Tyrone Slothrop
Read the text below the pretty pictures and you will see that the guy who runs that site just changed his methodology to reflect the average of the last three polls, rather than the most recent, making this the only day that site will reflect older information than the day before. ("Today the site undergoes its first major change in methodology since its inception.")
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So they are averaging polls rather than following the day-to-day swings. More accurate, if anything.
So for post-debate polls, we have the WaPo 5%, and now we have Pew:
- The latest national poll by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Oct. 1-3 among 1,002 registered voters, finds Bush maintaining a 48%-41% lead over Kerry among all voters. However, the internals of the poll suggest that Bush's margin slipped somewhat over the course of the weekend, as a growing number of voters came to see Kerry as the debate winner.
When the sample is narrowed to likely voters, Bush holds a slight edge (49%-44%) in voting intentions. This marks the first time in 16 years of Pew Research Center polling that a Democratic candidate has made a better showing on a likely voter base than on the basis of all registered voters.
The high level of Democratic motivation to vote is surprising given that only half of Democratic voters think that Kerry will win in November. By comparison, fully 85% of Republicans and even 60% of independents expect Bush will win the election.
Very interesting.
