Quote:
Originally posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy
39-25 in the undecided is a huge win. Assume there is a 2 point or less spread in several key states (true) with 10 undecided (actually a low figure - undecided are higher in battlegrounds). if the undecideds split by that ratio, Kerry gets more than 2 points and wins those states.
Add to that the momentum factor, especially since it is now clear that Bush couldn't win a single debate (at best he's scored 2 draws and a loss, at worst 3 losses) and its a clear win unless Bush can find some clever spin and kill or reverse the momentum.
As I've said before, Bush has to start explaining why people should vote for him instead of why people should vote against Kerry -- votes against are more often cast against incumbents than challengers.
|
Kerry needed to beat Bush badly last nite. He didn't.
This isn't boxing or a playoff series. People vote like juries. They recall the first thing they saw (Bush making an idiot of himself in the first debate) and the last thing they saw (Bush nailing the base with some great shtick about faith and God and family and security in the last debate). Put those two performance together and you get a wash, which brings the race to where it was pre-debates - Kerry close, but not close enough.
Florida and Ohio. Thats where this thing is at. PA will go Dem, even if the actual votes come in otherwise. Y'all don't think Eddie's machine is going to let the okies put this state in the red column, do you?
