Quote:
Originally posted by Mmmm, Burger (C.J.)
Is there any reason to believe that turnout rates over time is other than stochastic, and, if so, what do the figures show?
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Yes. All other things being equal, Republicans tend to vote in the morning. But there are other considerations as well, based on local issues. Inner city (D) precincts tend to report slower than suburban (R). And as we all recall, some of the most Republican parts of Florida don't close voting until an hour later. I don't see how these impact Zogby's poll particularly, since his is not an exit poll, but they have some effect in general on both exit polls and the release of official but incomplete results.
