Quote:
Originally posted by sgtclub
The elections are an extremely important step forward, to give the Iraqis confidence that they really and truly can have a democracy. But perhaps more importantly, I think that we will see a reduction in violence after the elections, as derailing the elections is one of the prime reasons for the recent spike in violence. The next round of violence will then focus on destabilzing the newly elected government and will thus be targeted more at the officials than at the citizens.
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Not even the commanders on the ground really expect things to improve after the elections.
- The war has become a classic test of wills. An example is the insurgents' campaign to close the capital's most important strategic artery, the road from the airport to central Baghdad and the Green Zone. When the insurgents added roving car bombs to their mix of ambushes and roadside explosives, the United States decided last week to ban official travel along the road. It was an insurgent victory, but probably a momentary one. The Americans have already decided on their response: They will take two lanes of the four-lane highway and create a dedicated road that will be open only to official traffic. Iraqis, car bombers and ordinary citizens alike, will be forced to use the other two lanes, safely across the median.
Next come the Iraqi elections, scheduled for Jan. 30. U.S. officials know the process will be messy and violent, especially in areas where the Sunni Muslim insurgency is strong, but they say people who want to vote will be able to do so. Asked what life will be like the day after the election, several commanders say it probably won't be very different from the day before. The insurgency will continue, the Americans will remain, the battle will go on.
Abizaid and his generals hope that there is a tipping point ahead -- a moment when Iraqis conclude that the Americans really do mean to stay the course. "They're sitting on the fence, waiting to see who's going to win this thing," says Lt. Gen. Thomas Metz, who commands day-to-day military operations in Iraq. "They have to see that we're going to take this thing to the conclusion." Once people are confident the Americans have the upper hand, Metz predicts, there will be a "stampede" to support the new Iraqi government.
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Abizaid may ultimately be right that if we convince the Iraqi populace that we will ultimately win, and we're not going anywhere, that people will rush to our side. But that's a big "if," and we're not close yet.
And if the Administration's plan is "hunt down and kill everyone of the fuckers and convince Iraq that we're here for-eva," this makes Rumsfeld's comments even more puzzling, no?
