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Why Aren't We Talking About This?
Quote:
Originally posted by bilmore
I think our difference lies in our view of the popularity of the anti-democratic forces native to Iraq.
I see an overwhelming Iraqi support for democracy. Because the tools of modern war are so powerful, I see a very small contingent wielding great disruptive power right now, but I think they start to wander away in the face of the failure to them that is expressed by a succesful election, and in the face of popular Iraqi support for a new government. Iraq is always going to be problematic, for the same reasons Israel is problematic - they're surrounded by hostile groups to whom democratic rule is anathema - and they are going to have to keep a powerful army, but it will be (if this works) an outward-looking one, not one (like the rest of the entire region) that guards against its own.
In the absence of SH's threats, and in the absence of his mass murdering, and in the presence of an Iraqi citizenry that seems to want this, I'm willing to call the glass half full.
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I don't think the difference between us lies in our views of the popularity of the anti-democracy forces. Perhaps the glass is half-full, whatever that means. When the Titanic was half-full, it sank. Somehow, the Kurds and Sunnis are going to have to be persuaded to submit themselves to a government dominated by Shi'ites. Somehow, the Shi'ites are going to have be persuaded not to exercise control over the Kurds and Sunnis commensurate with the Shi'ite share of the population. If you want to figure out how likely this is, you have to do more than poll Iraqis about their support for the ideal of democracy.
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“It was fortunate that so few men acted according to moral principle, because it was so easy to get principles wrong, and a determined person acting on mistaken principles could really do some damage." - Larissa MacFarquhar
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