Quote:
Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
what the fuck difference does the "slope" make? Bush suggested that they could not have predicted that people would be living longer. In fact, they did predict this, and very accurately so.
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You cite some prediction from 1935 that says in 2000 14% (whatever it was) of the population will be over 65. In fact in 2000 13.8% was over 65. To you that predicting the burden accurately.
I have no dog in this fight and actually don't want SS to be radically changed- I fear we will be walking over elderly street people soon if we do. But the fact that in 1 year the numbers were the same is meaningless. Bush didn't say he wasn't sure SS could make next month's nut.
Let's take 2 uncontroversial points- Baby Boom and medical science advances lifespan.
In 1935 did they predict a Baby Boom? If so, they were smart MFs. If they didn't, then in 1970 the predicted % over 65 was probably way higher than actual (there were millions more people in their 20s). Medical Science (MS) will cause the % to be generally increasing absent other the factors- so there is some slope or increase in the % that would be expected w/o other disturbance. The Baby Boom would be a disturbance that would cause the percentage to go down for awhile- that is, it would counter the effect of MS.
However, the Baby Boom will eventually get to 65. At that point there will be one severe upturn (slope)* in the percentage. And the slope would be much steeper than it would be if based only on MS. And the fact that the predicted % and the actual % crossed sometime in 2000 doesn't mean shit.
And I doubt very much they predicted how much MS has advanced lifespan- and I think the welfare state could have had an effect on the % similar to Baby Boom, but as my K professor used to say "I don't need to go so far afield."**
*actually this is mainly an excuse to show math skillz- some of the FB girlies were talking yesterday about how much they like that shit.
**Gatti. Can I count this one now? I have to get a report to my boss by 5 EST of what I did this week.
