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Originally posted by Sidd Finch
Interesting -- you agree with me that this is a fundamentally different situation, yet you assume that past performance guarantees future results.
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I don't think I every said anything about "guarantees."
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Over time the market has performed well. It has not been a good guarantor of a safety net, though. And average returns over time are just that -- average returns over time. Your faith in the market assumes that everyone will perform at average. Maybe in Lake Wobegon....
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My ongoing point that is the chicken-little concerns over everyone losing their shirt in the market are just that. It is the weakest argument against privatization because you either have vastly overstate the risks involved (most of which can be fairly easily controlled) or assume a radical change in future market performance.
Stick to arguing that the transition would be too costly or that we would still need to maintain a safety net anyway so it's not worth it. Either is a much stronger argument and makes the protectors of traditional SS sound much more grounded in reality.
And note, in your world, only those with disposable income to invest get to take advantage of market returns. The rest of America gets stuck with the government paying them whatever it can afford when they happen to retire.
