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Who likes Math?
I never took a math course that covered probability. Or, if I did, I was doing something more fun that day.
I was watching Numbers on Tivo the other day and the little professor guy explained a concept in probability using the following example:
Say there are three doors. Behind two doors there is a goat. Behind one door is a new car. What is the probability that you pick the door that has the car? You have a one-in-three chance.
Okay, so you pick the second door. The third door is opened, revealing a goat. Now you have a one in two chance of finding the car.
Here's where it gets tricky. Will your chances of finding the car increase if you change your choice from door two to door one?
I, and all the other dumbass students in his classroom on his show said that it wouldn't. He said we were all mistaken, of course. If you change your choice, apparently you double (or increase, but I think he said "double") the probability that you will find the car.
It doesn't make sense to me because I think the decision to not change doors is as much a choice as deciding to change doors at this point. And I can't get past the fact that no matter which door you choose, when it comes down to two doors, you would have a 50/50 chance of picking the right door.
Someone explain this to me.
TM
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