Quote:
Originally posted by Sidd Finch
I understand all of that, but it all contradicts Hello's argument. If the safety net causes the birthrate to drop, then you would expect the birthrate to be lower in the late 50s and early 60s than it is now, when the safety net is less solid than it was.
What causes a reduced birthrate? Prosperity is surely one thing -- the knowledge that you don't need lots of kids to support you. But this country has been prosperous for quite some time, and the birthrate has fluctuated substantially during that time. Greater opportunity for women is probably a more significant cause than any other factor -- as women pursue educations and careers, they are less likely to have children, particularly earlier in their lives. If you don't start breeding in your 20s, you are likely to have fewer, or even no, kids.
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I don't think it contradicts it at all, and the women's rights thing is surely not the strongest correlation... at least because some places outside of Europe (I'm thinking Japan and Korea) don't exactly have the strongest and most balanced history of this stuff.
As for prosperity, I think you need prosperity before people let the government really start massively spending on retirements security. A poor America might not tolerate the spending that a rich America does for something like Social Security. But hey, we have money, let's do it.
Other factors: People's willingness to trust this system. Over time, maybe this system gains trust (some time after the Depression and WWII). People reaaaallly adjust their behavior and expecations accordingly.
Immigration: immigrants need some time to get used to this idea too. I'd bet immigrants have disproportionately more children than native born Americans do (only considering what they do when they get here). Evidence to the contrary would make me raise my eyebrows.
Your women's rights thing surely plays into it. But how do we get a society that accepts and advocates women's rights? Well, it goes right back to the bedpan theory. I don't need Martha to change my bedpan no more, so what do I care if she don't need me no more.. I don't really need her so much either (partly because I don't need kids either... b/c uncle Fritz is gonna change my bedpan).
Anyway, there are obviously a lot of interrelated causes here. But I'd bet dollars to Fringey's dinner that the strongest correlation you could find by regression is between declining birthrate and the increasing guarantee (if "guarantee" and "trust in" could be measured) of a social umbrella, especially for the elderly.
