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Old 07-20-2005, 03:47 PM   #4680
nononono
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Join Date: Jul 2005
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Here it comes...

Quote:
Originally posted by Mmmm, Burger (C.J.)
I've never quite understood the calculus here.

There's a risk that amnio will cause a miscarriage (I think it's ~1/300, but whatever). And there's a risk of birth defects (increasing with mom's age). When that risk is less than 1/300, then amnio is indicated.

But it's not a sensible comparison because it fails to acknowledge the costs of error. For example, I might value the cost of having a trisomic baby as even higher than losing a baby to miscarriage. (Or it might be the other way around) But the risk-risk comparison doesn't incorporate that at all. So I might be willing to take a 1/300 risk of miscarriage, just to ensure a 1/1000 chance that amutant won't be born.
But amnio is always a *choice*. Some go by the numbers, but most do a qualitative analysis weighing what you say, as well as other concerns.
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