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Originally posted by Captain
Does anyone have any interest in talking about what to do in Iraq, without resort to issues of why we are in Iraq or what we should or shouldn't be talking about?
My view, still in formation, is this: disengagement in the short term is not an option, because we have set in motion a chain of events that heavily depends on our presence for a modicum of stability.
However, there are several dangers to continued engagement on the same terms, including most importantly being drawn into a potential civil war. The worst case scenario for me in Iraq is a three way war between Sunnis, Shi'ites and Kurds with shifting alliances and us being perceived as taking sides. I believe that there is a significant danger that the new, ostensibly democratic regime will have many pressures on it to become more autocratic as it tries to fend off civil war.
I think we should be considering encouraging a plebiscite on separation with the idea being that Iraqis would make their own decision, and would either decide to stay together, steeling thunder from those advocating civil war, or decide to part, eliminating the necessity for a war to force a parting. Right now, the Sunnis will continue to have emotional appeal for the notion that they have been shut out and need to force their voice through military means if necessary.
I also think we should be looking for increased internationalization even if it means compromising control over what may go on militarily, politically and economically in the country - even if moving towards a fully Iraqi police force is a long shot, replacing some of our troops with forces from elsewhere in the region (Pakistan? Egypt? Saudi Arabia?) is essential, and needs to be a first level diplomatic goal. The fact that other countries are pulling troops rather than replacing ours is not a good sign, and we need a renewed push in this area.
Finally, I'm not sure traditional military units are appropriate for this action in its current form; Iraq needs internal police structures more than military structures, and one of te great ongoing tragedies in developing countries historically has been the use of military rather than police to maintain order. I think we should be reviewing creative solutions for replacing traditional military units with police volunteers.
And I would judge our political leaders a year from now on success based on whether they are able to diversify the forces in Iraq, bringing home significant traditional military forces and shifting the burden in Iraq to other countries and to other types of forces. Not because I want our troops home (though I do), but because I believe this disengagement will lead to more long term stability. I would also judge them based on whether or not there is one or more governments in Iraq that are stable and have legitimacy, and on whether any remaining terrorist attacks are focused on us as occupiers or on other ethnic groups as virtually inevitable ethnic strife.
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You have some interesting ideas. However, I don't know that Balkanization of Iraq will work in the long run, for two reasons. First, Iran and Turkey will definitely not back an independent Kurdistan for fear of infecting the Kurds in their own countries. Second, divvying up Iraq will be complicated by the fact that oil isn't equally distributed, nor is arable land. There will be too much argument over compensating the regions tha lack resources.
I agree that the need for political support is great right now, but I don't think that strong institutions can be built without the muscle to back them up. The Iraqi military and police force is making some progress. However, I don't think they are ready to shoulder the burden of maintaining order without US military support. Add to that some evidence that certain elements within the Iraqi police force seem to be using their power to oppress the Sunni majority in some towns and it becomes pretty clear to me that we can't back out yet.
I would like to see some use of international Arab forces to supplement US military. I don't know that this is going to be achievable without increasing at least the perception of Balkanization, though. I don't know that the sects will be able to or willing to cooperate, no matter how much it's necessary to stabilize the country.
But you do have some interesting ideas.
