Quote:
Originally posted by Spanky
I agree with your analysis that Israels actions have destabilised moderate regimes with the result of less moderate regimes being in power in the Middle East. The only thing I would point out, is that moderate regimes tend to become more democratic and although democratic middle east regimes may be better for the world they may not be better for Israel.
98% of the Arabs (and at least 90% of the people of the Middle East) are for the destruction of Israel. So truely democratic regimes in the Middle East are going to be for the destruction of Israel. If we are successful in creating a Democratic regime in Iraq my guess is that it will be hostile to Israel. And even if there is a democratic revolution in Iran that regime will be hostile to Israel.
So from the Israeli perspective tryrannical regimes that are afraid of losing power and are afraid for their own lives might be better regimes for Israel to deal with. This analysis cleary does not work with Hamas, because they are less democratic and more hostile to Israel, but then again Hamas may represent the true feelings of the Palestinians better.
I believe a truly democratic regime in Egypt would be more hostile to Israel. Egypts current government, Israel can work with, because it wants to hold on to power and sees the futility of fighting Israel, but I don't think the Egyptian people see that or will ever see that. a
That is why I see it Israel is pretty much screwed no matter what it does. So maybe the best thing it can do is just focus on protecting its people and not focusing on the regimes in power.
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There is an argument that Arab anti-Semitism and anti-Israel feeling is an outlet for frustration with Arab governments, and is encouraged as such by those governments to divert attention from their failings. A truly democratic government might find less need to stir the pot, and its citizens might find more fulfillment in progress than in railing against Israel.
Or, they might not. I don't know the area well enough to have a strong view.
