Quote:
Originally posted by Adder
I am sure you are right. But I just don't see a threat to Israel's survival at the start of the current hostilities.
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It was not so threatened -- at least by anything Hezbollah did. As Dr. Breszinski pointed out in an NPR interview I heard this morning, Israel has not faced any kind of real conventional threat to its survival since its peace accord with Egypt in the late 1970s.
The unconventional warfare is very problematic for them -- and Arab nuclear progams _could_ threaten Israel's existence -- but that 's not what we are talking about.
Quote:
Originally posted by Adder
Okay, so, in other words, you seem to be saying that you think that there is a military solution to the conflict in the Middle East. I am more than a bit surprised that you would think so.
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No. That is not what I said. What I was saying is that Israel seems to think that there is a combined military/political solution to Hezbollah and, perhaps, its wider conflict.
I also think that Israel probably thinks the first step is this kind of military action, with the goals of both substantially degrading the enemies' offensive capabilities and trying to convince Arab governments that the conflict isn't worth it anymore.
In the current context where Islamic radicals threaten (or are seen to threaten) the continuing existence of these Arab regimes, Israel's policy of escalation (which will mobilize and radicalize the populations) has a chance to get the Arabs to pull back and try to restrain or cripple Hamas and Hezbollah. I think Israel figures that it can't get much worse for Israel -- it can't be more hated or more threatened. Therefore, Israel has decided to show how they can make it worse for the Arab countries, if they want to keep this going.
Iran is a huge fly in this ointment, however.
