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Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
When the dust settles and the fires stop burning, is Israel going to be any happier with who is occupying the other side of its northern border?
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Quite possibly. The notion of either an international force, or international assistance for Lebanon to try and control the country and implement the security council resolution re disarming Hezbollah, has been raised. And that would certainly be an improvement.
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Is Israel doing anything to reduce support for Shi'a radicalism of Hezbollah's kind or to legitimize and strengthen the alternatives to Hezbollah?
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Probably not. But pulling out of Lebanon did not have that effect either. Nor did pulling out of Gaza. Nor would anything else, I believe.
On the other hand -- and this is historic -- Arab powers have already spoken out against Hezbollah. Will Saudi and Egyptian pressure have some effect? Will those countries be able to pressure Syria to tighten up its borders and to cut off its own support for Hezbollah?
As for strengthening the alternatives.... I'm not sure what alternatives you mean. I suspect that in the next Lebanese elections, Hezbollah's claim to stand against Israel will be less convincing.
Finally, there is the question you didn't ask: Will Israel have killed enough trained Hezbollah fighters, destroyed enough weapons, and damaged enough infrastructure to make Hezbollah less of a threat for a few years? Ultimately, I think this is the only question that matters. I do not think that the broad desire to destroy Israel is going anywhere -- and I don't think that Israel can really do much to allay that desire, except at the margins. Ultimately the issue is not Gaza or West Bank or Golan or Synai or Southern Lebanon. It's Israel, the fact of its existence. And the only people who can do anything about that sentiment -- the "destroy Israel" sentiment -- are Arab and Muslim leaders. Given that, simply damaging the army that attacks it is a worthwhile goal for Israel to pursue.
And before you ask -- attacking the civilians who were fleeing in accordance with Israeli instructions was a pretty fucking stupid thing to do.
