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[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally posted by Sidd Finch
For the record -- I think that destroying the military capability of Hezbollah will save more live than it will cost, in the long run.

Maybe the proper tense is "would" instead of "will." The news reports I've seen in the last day -- yesterday's NYT or WaPo or today's FT, I can't recall which -- suggested that Israel is having a much harder time with Hezbollah than was expected. Which is Not Good.

Maybe this is what I was thinking of:

• The very clear winner, for the moment at least, was Hezbollah and its leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah. . . . As the only Arab leader seen to have defeated the Israelis — on the basis of their withdrawal in 2000 from an 18-year occupation — he already enjoyed wide respect. Now, with Hezbollah standing firm and inflicting casualties, he has become a folk hero across the Muslim world, apparently uniting Sunnis and Shiites.
  
  The standoff stunned Israel, whose offensive came in response to a Hezbollah cross-border raid that resulted in the death of eight Israeli soldiers and the capture of two others. Central to the embattled nation’s sense of survivability is the idea of its invincibility. Its intelligence knows everything, the mythology goes, and no army dare stand against it. In truth, Israel has, in part, been lucky in its enemies, mostly Arab regimes with armies suitable mainly for keeping their own populace in check.
  
  What was clearly conceived two weeks ago as a quick battle using air power and strikes on specific targets with commando raids to degrade Hezbollah’s resources, particularly its stores of thousands of rockets, has turned into a crisis. “Israel is far from a decisive victory and its main objectives have not been achieved,” wrote the country’s most respected military analyst, Zeev Schiff, in the daily Haaretz.
  
  Hezbollah, Sheik Nasrallah has said, “needs only to survive to win.” That seemed increasingly likely by week’s end. Deeply entwined among the Shiite community that makes up perhaps 40 percent of Lebanon’s population, it would be impossible to eliminate. But there is more. Although the Israelis announced within days that they had destroyed 50 percent of Hezbollah’s munitions, the guerrillas have continued to rain more than a hundred rockets a day on Israel. And on Wednesday, in Bint Jbail, a town the Israelis said they controlled, a well-laid Hezbollah ambush pinned down infantrymen from the elite Golani Brigade for hours. At times the firing was so heavy the brigade’s soldiers could not return it; eight Israelis were killed. The highly advanced Merkava tanks were reduced to ambulances and several were destroyed.