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Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
1) They're being colonized more and more by Han Chinese, so it'll be harder and harder for them to break away. And China seems to be getting stronger, not weaker.
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China may becoming stronger, but strength ain't everything. The more Democratic she becomes the harder it will be for them to hold on (at least in my opinion). However, you are dead on about the Han Chinese. Every day their numbers grow. Manchuria and Inner Mongolia have been so flooded with Han (I think inner mongolia is 90%) that the idea of independce or reunnification with mongolia has become a joke.
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Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop 2) I'm not sure who would be pushing to change those borders. None of those countries are expansionist.
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Couldn't Afghanistan, Pakistan or Iran fall apart? Persia is only fifty percent persian. The north west corner is all azerbaijni, the lower north west section is all Kurdish, and you have Baluchis in the southeastern corner. In Pakistan none of the other regions are too happy with Punjabi dominance.
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Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop 3) No. Too many distinct interests.
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If all these countries became truly democratic, I think at least a few would merge like the two Yemens did.
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Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop
4) Hmm.
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I go back and forth on this. I think Isreal would be really, really, really, reluctant to be only the second country in history to use nukes in hostility, but then again, I don't think they could do the job without them and they say they won't allow a nucler Iran to exist.
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Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop 5) No. EU makes this more and more pointless.
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I actually think the EU makes this easier. They can split off but not really face dire economic consquences. I think both Scotland and England will split and so will Belgium. Belgium will go because the Walloons really don't like the way the flemmish are being so nice to the muslims. The muslim terrorist thing is pushing the issue.
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Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop 6) That's tough. Kosovar independence will happen only with NATO/UN protection from the Serbs, but NATO/UN doesn't want to upset things by sticking the two countries together.
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Yes, I agree. But eventually Kosovar independence will become a give and then Nato will exit, and I don't think Serbia will do anything even after NATO exits because of their desire to join the EU. And then the albanian union will occur and Serbia will show restraint for the same reason.
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Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop 7) Much more likely if we're not there.
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Very true. However, once we are gone, that is the big question. I think the only thing that will hold Turkey back will be US anger. After we spent so much money and manpower helping Kurdistan get its independence I don't think a turkish invasion will go over very well here. The other issue is what will Turkey do with Kurdistan once they invade? I can't imagine them occupying it. They say they won't let an independent Kurdistan exist on its southern border, but once it does exist what can they really do?
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Originally posted by Tyrone Slothrop 8) Sounds like an SF party.
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In my opinion most SF partys suck, but this one was really good.
