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Originally posted by Spanky
So do you think we can talk to Iran without diminishing our ability to coerce them into not building a bomb?
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I see almost no chance that we can coerce Iran into not building a bomb. Period.
We lost our ability to coerce Iran when we got the vast majority of our available land-based military power stuck dealing with Iraq next door. (Which has the added benefit for Iran of giving them a chance to bleed us or not -- and thus leverage.) They know that there is almost zero chance of us taking military action against them, and will act accordingly.
This make a diplomatic approach difficult to say the least,
Quote:
Originally posted by Spanky
I see almost no or zero upside in talking to them because they want us to be humiliated in Iraq, so why would they help us.
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Like Ty said, I disagree to some extent.
From their point of view -- a Middle Eastern/Muslim/Arab/Persian perspective - the U.S has already been humiliated in Iraq. Long-term, it is in Iran's interest that Iraq be stable. Any pseudo-democracy we create will be Shia dominated -- as Ty points out.
I'd expect that the interests of a democratic Iraq will be generally aligned with and peaceful towards Iran. (Big neighboring oil producers who share the same faith.) Iran has some interest in, but no real urgency towards, helping us get there.
S_A_M
