Quote:
Originally posted by ThurgreedMarshall
Let me get this straight. You think Cabrera will put up better offensive numbers than ARod, who is currently on track to hit over 60 home runs this season? I assume he'll have a significant drop off four years from now, but I don't see him hitting less than 35-40 home runs for the foreseeable future. Cabrera has yet to hit 35. His RBI #s are impressive, but when will ARod not be on a team where he can drive in his typical 125 RBI? Arod's a career .300 hitter and Cabrera has him beat there, but that may even out the longer he's in the league.
I love Cabrera and he'd be my next pick after ARod at third (based on their numbers), but, barring injury, I don't think his numbers will be better than ARod's over the next 10 years.
TM
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First, I'm assuming, possibly incorrectly, that Miggy leaves the Marlins. So, he'd leave a park which is hurts his power numbers a bunch (his 3 full seasons he's hit 30% more homers on the road; Arod was closer to even split in Seattle) and probably be in the the middle of a better line-up giving him more RBI opportunity.
Second, compare his numbers to ARod's when Arod was 21, 22, 23, 24. Miggy's not that far behind, tho he is a bit behind. ARod's really big years started when he was 25--next year for Miggy--and after he left Seattle.
Third, you really believe that, barring injury to either, ARod will be a more productive hitter at 40 than Cabrera will be at 32? You think that ARod will drop off only slightly and that Cabrera will not get better? I don't.
I'm not saying that Cabrera will end up with better numbers over his entire career than ARod--I seriously doubt that--but I am saying that I think the 24 yo Cabrera will have a better next 10 years than the 32 yo ARod. With the notable exception of Bonds, hitters don't get better after they're 32. They do get better, especially w/r/t power stats, after they are 24--Arod is just one example.
