Quote:
Originally posted by Cletus Miller
Yeah, this year matters some too, but the premise is what to do with ARod's threat to opt out/if he opts out. He's a NYY until October so relative production this year shouldn't be a big part of the equation.
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Ridiculous. It's a part of the equation because you need to use past and present performance to predict future performance. If you're going to use Cabrera's numbers to project stats, I'm going to use ARod's.
Quote:
Originally posted by Cletus Miller
Right, bad example. Still, other than Bonds, even the greatest hitters' stats drop off after 32 and significantly after 34. A season or two of comparable production, but not year after year of career average or better numbers, injuries or not. Maybe ARod is really that much of a freak and will be the exception, but it's not a solid bet.
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It's as solid a bet as removing Cabrera from the field of players who started off their careers with great numbers only to flame out after 4 years. And since you don't have very many years to work with, that's exactly what you're doing.
And I think it's a pretty solid bet to say that I can treat ARod as an exception to your 32-and-done thesis since (i) he's 30 and on pace to hit 60...er, correction, 58 home runs, and (ii) he will most likely retire as the greatest player in the history of the modern era of baseball (stats wise).
Quote:
Originally posted by Cletus Miller
That ARod is the likely career home run leader--and to have him retire in your team's uniform--is going to be the heart of Boras pitch on contract length and why I think he's looking for ten years (or a 7 year extension from the Yanquis).
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I agree. And we'll probably give it to him. But there is no way anyone in baseball is worth $35 million or more. That's just silly.
TM
