Quote:
Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield
I’m being wildly generous with that 30%. If you take a worldwide assumption of peak 500 mil, out of 7.7 billion people on Earth, roughly 1/15th (6.6%) of the world will be infected.
6.6% of 320 mil is 21,120,000. 2% of 21,120,000 is 422,400.
That’s much more than my earlier assumption. But it’s also based off a model which does not take into account where those 500 mil cases will be. They could be largely kept to China, India, etc. And the death rates may vary wildly by location. So we may enjoy a much lower rate while China and Iran are responsible for the higher scores driving the majority of that 2% worldwide average.
I totally agree this’ll be way worse than AIDS. Transmission differences render AIDS a million times more containable.
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If you figure that this thing has a similar transmission rate as the 'flu (which it probably doesn't because a lot of us are getting 'flu shots and/or have other exposure based immunity to 'flu), it'll hit about 35.5 million people (
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html) in the US based off of last year's 'flu numbers.
I'm pretty sure it's in this area by now given the flyers up looking for epidemiologists to head over to Ft. Bend County for surveillance. It's probably in a lot of other areas that haven't yet been reported. We will have a better sense in the next few weeks. But yeah, a lot of elderly people are going to die here, and a lot more are going to get really, really sick.
