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[Replaced_Texan]

Originally Posted by LessinSF

I concede my theory does not account for this, as to age being a factor to the likelihood of contracting the disease per same exposure. Dammit, RT! Go back to helping and saving people instead of proving me wrong here.

Sorry!! Also, this is especially disquieting, but also consistent with a lot of anecdotal data I've been hearing about the numbers not matching the reality. It's likely that the deaths all over have been under-reported. This is just a Kos story and I don't know how they determine what is "normal", but it does link to the scientific studies/observations. It's also likely that people are dying of other things because they can't get healthcare due to the hospitals being all full up with Covid patients.

Very important information about Coronavirus deaths coming out of Italy and Spain.

This is fascinating, and terrifying.

First acme a report out of Italy. Two physicists, including Claudio Cancelli Luca Foresti, the Mayor of Nembro, one of the hardest-hit towns in Italy, took a deep statistical dive into data about deaths, and here's what they found:

In normal times, looking at average death rates from January to March in previous years, 35 people would have died. Add the 31 reported Covid deaths, and they should be looking at approximately 70 deaths. Instead, there were 158 deaths. This huge spike, more than 3.6x the expected (subtracting out Covid), was too significant to be a statistical anomaly. Also, the additional undiagnosed deaths spiked in perfect harmony with the Covid deaths. The only possible explanation was that they, too, were Covid-related.

They then looked at neighboring towns and did the same analysis. They found the number of anomalous deaths (above average but not designated as Covid-related) ranged from 6.1X the Covid-related deaths all the way to 10.4X Civid-related deaths.

If they are right, the death rate far exceeds the death rates being reported, likely 4X or more.

Are they right?

Well, we don't know for sure, but there is strong evidence they are.

There's a newer report now, out of Spain.

On March 27th, Spain reported a total of 4,858 deaths from Covid-19. But that only included people who died after a positive test. The study also looked at the number of excess deaths, deaths above the expected based on averages.

In Castilla y León, between March 17 and March 24, they had 885 deaths, with 112 attributable to Covid. But the expected number was 500, meaning an additional 263 people died without a Covid diagnosis, in just the one week during the Covid spike. Absent a terrorist attack or mass shooting, there's just no other explanation than under-reported Covid deaths. That would be, by the say, a 50+% increase in deaths, and an under-reporting of more than 3X.

In two other regions, Castilla-La Mancha and the Comunidad de Madrid, from March 15 to March 24, and March 10 to March 16, respectively (based on first cases), there were 1198 more deaths than expected, with just 192 attributed to Covid.

So what does all this mean? It likely means two different things. First, deaths from Covid are grossly under-reported. If the US actually manages to keep deaths in the 100,00-240,000 range, the goalposts now being set by the Administration, it likely means we're really looking at half a million to a million dead Americans.