Zeke Emmanuel, retired with University and Health Care System pension, has argued we need to lock down for 18 months. Not a misprint:
https://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word/...al-81719365650
Putting aside the arrogance of this self-annointed (nice to have a brother in high places) brahmin's pronouncement that we "must" do what he says (we certainly will not be doing anything like it), he notes in a worst case scenario that we would have 2 million dead.
I don't know where he got 2 million from, but if we assume he's correct, that's .006 of the population.
For sake of this post, I'll assume that number is one based on what would occur if we went back to work on May 1, 2020.
The cost of not restarting the economy at least to some extent by May 1, 2020 will be many multiples of those 2 million lives, spread over many years. The economy will not immediately bounce back. It will take 1 - 2 months before people start behaving in a semblance of what was normal before the lockdowns.
Allowing the young low risk population (under 50 w/o co-morbidities) to start working on May 1 should allow some herd immunity to emerge w/o crushing the medical systems. (This date may vary for cities, where density risks overwhelming the systems. They may have to stay locked down a bit longer.)
Then allowing older workers without co-morbidities, say 50 - 65, to work after the third week of May would repeat the above process for that slice of the population.
After another three weeks, release the 65 and up w/o co-morbidities set to work.
And then finally, in late June, release the rest.
Throughout this, however, to ensure against overwhelming the health care system, direct all workers who can work from home to do so. And continue use of masks and enhanced attention to hygiene (hand washing), and refrain from mass gatherings as much as possible.
In other words, release people to work in waves, the most robust first, with three week intervals in between.
And get people like Emmanuel, making preposterous arguments for what is effectively "Nation Suicide," off the airwaves.
