Quote:
Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski
Help me here- the 2% is of the people who are identified as infected- but the bulk of the cases are not reported. Mild cases are shrugged off- young people with a bad case are told to just stay home, and never reported. So really the 2% is of the people who get a case bad enough to go in? The actual death rate is likely much lower?
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In the US as of this morning, according to
this Washington Post page, there have been 558,000 reported cases and 22,154 reported fatalities. Do the math, and that means that just shy of 4% of the reported cases have already resulted in fatalities. But, (1) more of those people are going to die, (2) we know there have been significant numbers of deaths that are in some real way attributable to Covid-19 that are not counted in those numbers, and (3) there are many people who had the virus who have not tested positive. Obviously, (1) and (2) would increase the 4% figure, and (3) would reduce it.
IIRC, the 2% figure came from studies in China and Korea where there was more more extensive testing, and where they were trying to solve for the unreported-mild-case thing that you are pointing to.
