Quote:
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
In the US as of this morning, according to this Washington Post page, there have been 558,000 reported cases and 22,154 reported fatalities. Do the math, and that means that just shy of 4% of the reported cases have already resulted in fatalities. But, (1) more of those people are going to die, (2) we know there have been significant numbers of deaths that are in some real way attributable to Covid-19 that are not counted in those numbers, and (3) there are many people who had the virus who have not tested positive. Obviously, (1) and (2) would increase the 4% figure, and (3) would reduce it.
IIRC, the 2% figure came from studies in China and Korea where there was more more extensive testing, and where they were trying to solve for the unreported-mild-case thing that you are pointing to. |
I think as you wash the adjustments upward and downward, the deviation from 2% remains minimal.
But even if it were 4%, at what point does the balancing of interests dictate we follow "wave" rollout of workers to resume living their lives? ...People going back based on healthiest and youngest first, lesser aged and/or healthy groups following in three week increments, old with big co-morbidities last.
We need to do something like that or we are going to have a depression that kills 20X what this disease could kill.
