Quote:
Originally Posted by Icky Thump
You test, you test, you test. Symptomatic and asymptomatic.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...917-X/fulltext
Again, for those of you who have not been paying attention, the problem with this virus is asymptomatic transmission.
How did "herd immunity" work out for Boris Johnson and the UK? Double the death rate of the US! |
Right. And a whole lot more people appear to have it than confirmed numbers suggest.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...iously-thought
There is also a good bit of limited thinking at work here:
1. People flip about about acute and sudden deaths but don't focus on deaths over time (9/11 effect; school shooting effect, etc.);
2. People are highly suggestible when shown doom porn, and the media is feeding them a steady diet of that:
https://thehill.com/homenews/media/4...d-help-reelect
3. Americans are generally confused by math:
https://theconversation.com/math-mis...ovid-19-134520
The unknown denominator is a devil here. We know it's really fucking high based on all studies of controlled groups to date (the cruise ship was something like 50% asymptomatic). But we also know the death rate is under-reported, and adjustments in the numerator change findings more than small changes in the denominator.
But we know that even if there were a lot of covid deaths attributed incorrectly to other causes, it still was not a significant amount. You saw no news stories in January or February talking about strange upticks in deaths. You did hear stories about a nasty flu, but even then, the flu death numbers weren't unique.
We had to flatten the curve, and we have to protect doctors. But there is a much needed discussion about how long and to what extent such efforts have to be kept in place. And people need to get over this kneejerk emotional need to make everything an argument of absolutes. This is an argument about balancing things moving forward. Which is a very positive message. People screaming, "If we go back, we're doomed!" are not helping anything. The question is to what extent and in what fashion do we start wading back into the pool?
