Quote:
Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield
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If you use their adjustment for people who never experience symptoms, you get a roughly 1/5 increase in denominator. The denominator in the death/hospitalization ratios is many many multiples of the numerator. Italy has 180k cases and 24k deaths (rounded up). That's a thirteen percent death rate. 10X of that is impossible because that number of people, 240k, haven't died of all combined cuases in Italy during the entire time the virus has been present.
Here's the math: Italy has 60 million people. In 2019, deaths per 1000 residents were 10.56. Cite: https://www.macrotrends.net/countrie...aly/death-rate That means deaths per all 60 million residents in 2019 were just just over 60,000.
That's over a whole year. Covid has been savaging Italy for a quarter. So adjust the national death rate down to 15k. If Covid is killing 10X more than reported (143k [13k x 10 + 13k]), then it is killing nearly 10X more than all aggregate causes killing Italians during a typical quarter. |
Covid has not been savaging Italy. Last I looked there were fewer than 250 cases for all of Calabria as an example. I think it hit hard in the North but not so bad elsewhere. Rerun your numbers focusing only on the Province where Milan is.
