Quote:
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
"We" have been having this conversation, in the sense that "we", by which I mean both Icky and myself, have said you can't get anywhere close to normal until you have really widespread testing and the ability to isolate people who test positive and do contact tracing. That is "the fashion" in which we start wading into the pool. I'm more optimistic that this will happen in California than anywhere else in the country, because our infection rate seems to be low, our state and local authorities have done a good job, and it's pretty easy to stop people at the border and test them.
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I don't know what I'm talking about with what follows, but it makes sense to me-
What I've heard is that when you have a pandemic there is a first spike. The goal to date has been to keep that as small as possible so that health care can cover it. Some places have done a better job than others. NYC and Detroit didn't do so well, but both seem to have leveled.
Everything I've heard is there will be subsequent, smaller peaks, and they will be more manageable. But everything I've heard is there will be more cases coming, regardless. Given the widespread numbers in the places that screwed up, I think you could make an argument their subsequent peaks might look better than the places that did a better job?
