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Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield
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https://www.mdedge.com/dermatology/a...en-cruise-ship
If you use their adjustment for people who never experience symptoms, you get a roughly 1/5 increase in denominator. The denominator in the death/hospitalization ratios is many many multiples of the numerator. Italy has 180k cases and 24k deaths (rounded up). That's a thirteen percent death rate. 10X of that is impossible because that number of people, 240k, haven't died of all combined cuases in Italy during the entire time the virus has been present.
Here's the math: Italy has 60 million people. In 2019, deaths per 1000 residents were 10.56. Cite: https://www.macrotrends.net/countrie...aly/death-rate That means deaths per all 60 million residents in 2019 were just just over 60,000.
That's over a whole year. Covid has been savaging Italy for a quarter. So adjust the national death rate down to 15k. If Covid is killing 10X more than reported (143k [13k x 10 + 13k]), then it is killing nearly 10X more than all aggregate causes killing Italians during a typical quarter.
I don't have total deaths in Italy for this year so far, but that stat cannot be close to true. |
I said actual deaths from Covid "can be" 10x reported deaths, which has been true in specific places in Italy, Spain and New York, not that they are always that high.
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I'm not arguing the disease is not more deadly than the flu.
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Since it is more deadly than the flu, and there were not reports of an inexplicable uptick in flu-like deaths in January and February, that suggests it was not spreading widely during that time.
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I'd be optimistic about CA as well. And I'm optimistic for my state, as we have not even come close to maxing out medical capacity. Hence, I suggest we can incrementally, in a reversible fashion, introduce robust populations back into the work force in thin slices, in order of least likelihood to be hospitalized if infected. While also expanding testing. These are not mutually exclusive concepts. They are actually complimentary.
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Play this out. You ease up on social distancing and try to re-open some businesses. Infections rise and people get sick. They infect family, some of who are less robust. (In China, the biggest source of infections was family, so they forced people out of their homes into "hospitals" that were more about quarantining people than treating them.) Without testing, how to do you manage that spread? When you have the resulting spike in cases and deaths, how do you persuade people to go to the re-opened businesses? When people get sick at work, do they get to sue their employer? If so, how can a business afford to open? If not, how can a business persuade workers to work?
The number of reported cases in Pennsylvania has doubled in less than two weeks. Without any change, is there any reason to think it won't double again in the next two weeks? The number of deaths has doubled in the last week, without any change, is there any reason to think it won't double again soon? Why is this the right to accelerate those growth rates?
I'm more optimistic about California because we have had spread for longer, and because we are managing it better. Pennsylvania has nearly 4x the per capita death rate that we did, and things are getting worse faster. Also, once we get our testing program together, we can limit control to the state. There are already agricultural control checkpoints at the borders. Much harder to manage that in Pennsylvania.
