Quote:
Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield
Are you afraid Trump is going to win MN on a law 'n order vote?
I don't think that's going to happen. I think this Floyd thing will fade from prominence in the next few weeks. Like Occupy, I don't see all of the heat behind these protests sustaining without a clearly defined set of policy objectives. There has to be a plan, as Killer Mike has said in tons of appearances.
There are reforms being implemented and a lot of lip service being paid by politicians to the notion of a need for reform. But I don't see police brutality as one of the most important voter issues in swing states this fall.
I see the media predicting a slowdown in the protests already. My news feed was all Floyd all day a week ago. As his funeral approached it slowed and a mix of stories about Covid-19 upticks started appearing. Now it's filled with criticisms of some WHO flip flop on Covid data and a surge in infections in Texas.
The story du jour is going to be "Covid is Back, Baby!!!" until the next unemployment report. If the unemployment report is excellent or great, it'll be all about the economy for a few weeks, then when that becomes boring, back to Covid. Or if Trump is back on the road doing rallies, it'll be all about that.
Intermittently, stories about protests and more police abuse will appear here and there.
The media has four dishes to serve to keep eyeballs - Covid, Trump's latest bizarre or offensive behavior, police brutality, and the economy (comeback or depression?). Their goal will be to swap these stories in and out continuously as people become temporarily bored with them.
I see law 'n order, police brutality, protests, and riots as the least served of these dishes. It doesn't matter to as broad an audience as the economy, Trump's craziness, or Covid. I see Trump losing if he focuses on it. His focus should be the economy and Covid. If the economy bounces and we see no second wave, he can win. In any other scenario, all of which are far more likely, he loses.
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In 2017, the Women's March and #metoo revolutionized a lot of people. Relatives that never really gave a shit started meeting with strangers in small coffee shops and in front of senator's offices to take action. They became voter registrars and knocked on doors in 2018 Women took online ranting to actual action and started running for office. I knew personally more people running for office in 2018 than in any other election in memory. All women, most won. . It happened all over the country. It's still going. The 2018 midterms sprang from a lot of things, but women organizing in a quiet way had a huge impact on that.
The events of the last two weeks were even greater than the Women's March. Places that I NEVER thought would give a shit about racism stood up. Fucking Vidor, Texas had more than 100 people show up. What the fuck? And has been sustained over a long period. Part of it, I think, has to do with the racist bullshit coming out of the White House from day one, starting with the immigration ban and pretty much every day since. Part of it has to do with the fact that parts of this country have done the adult equivalent of sticking their fingers in their ears and yelling "I DON'T HEAR YOU" when the issue of police brutality against African Amercians has been brought up. Kapernick's treatment is a particularly egregious example of this, but it's not the only one. Part of it is that this particular murder was pretty horrific and can't really be excused away, especially given the video, though I'm sure they'll try. It's certainly the first time I've seen someone slowly and deliberately killed in real life. A lot of it has to do with the rage and frustration and helplessness people feel about the pandemic.
The police didn't do themselves any favors in the early days of the protests by reacting so violently. Especially when they did jack shit with those armed assholes that were protesting fucking haircuts and bars.
I see this as a mobilizing point. Whether or not the general public forgets isn't as important as planting the seeds of organization. Is it in time for the 2020? I think so, given the sheer number of people who have been radicalized in some way. There are groups forming all over the country, even in places that were improbable before the pandemic started. It's impossible right now to get books like White Fragility on Amazon because so many people are reading them right now. My white (for Houston) yoga studio is hosting a book club starting this week starting with Heavy: An American Memoir, also impossible to get in tangible form right now. Sorority members are calling out racism in their houses on Twitter. Authors are sharing the details of their book deals to shine light on disparities. There's a revolution happening in places like Conde Nast and Crossfit. Like #metoo, people are feeling comfortable coming forward publicly with shit they've been carrying privately for too long.
The problem of course, demonstrated so beautifully by the shitty situation in Georgia earlier this week, is the Republicans have done everything in their power to prevent people from voting. This in the middle of the pandemic when we really shouldn't be that close to each other.
So we'll see, but I think that this is a flashpoint. A lot of people in this country want to ignore as a one-time-thing like all of the other beatings and killings that we forget about and move on. I don't think so.
