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[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

There was always going to be a Democratic freak-out, and just after the RNC and just before Labor Day is the perfect time for it.

From Josh's lips to God's ear:

Trump Losing on ‘Law and Order’

It’s easy to get lost in the big muddy river of polling data and headlines. But before we get further into the day I wanted to discuss a new group of polls that came out yesterday. This was the first batch of quality polls entirely after the GOP convention. The upshot of really all of them is that “law and order” is not only not helping Trump cut into Biden’s lead. Trump appears to be losing that debate on its own terms. When pollsters ask voters which candidate they trust more to handle civil unrest, protests or crime, they’re picking Biden.

In a sense this mirrors polling from mid-June. Many commentators predicted that the protests in response to the murder of George Floyd in late May and early June would shift the 2020 campaign into a 1968 redux, with the more ideological left flank of the Democratic party alienating suburban and white voters and giving the race to the GOP. Subsequent polls almost universally showed something different. There was actually a decisive shift in favor of support for the Black Lives Matter movement and the belief that police abuse of African-Americans is a real and urgent issue.

But what’s happened in recent weeks has been different. At least in the media’s presentation – and to a significant degree in reality – the ratio of protests to vandalism and civil unrest has weighed much more into the latter category. In other words, Trump’s had more to work with. And yet still, it largely hasn’t worked.

Basically all the polls tell this basic story. But the most notable is a Fox News poll of Wisconsin which shows Biden with a healthy 8 point lead among likely voters 50%-42%. But in the internals there’s this question: “Policing and criminal justice: Regardless of how you might vote, who do you trust to do a better job on each of the following — Joe Biden or Donald Trump?” Among likely voters Biden’s topped Trump by 5 points.

The context is complicated. But Wisconsin is not only critical electorally it has a unique demographic makeup and geography that should make it particularly susceptible to these kinds of appeals. But it simply hasn’t worked.

Most of the answer here is that we’re not living in 1968. And what this new reality is we’re only learning dimly and through a mirror as we go. We also have a President who lacks credibility, is unpopular and is visibly inciting unrest rather than calming it. But there’s one other element people have perhaps ignored. There is always a certain appeal to leaders who can settle an unstable and chaotic situation. If President Trump could end the unrest in Portland and other cities, even by unacceptable means, I don’t think there’s much doubt that some people would support that. But he hasn’t done that or even really tried to. He’s mainly just played up the scary pictures, blamed other people and bragged about how he could end it if he wanted to, or if mayors asked nicely or similar claims. To most of us it’s obvious that he’s the one inciting most of the unrest. But there’s no second step. Cynical leaders often incite unrest with the aim of cracking down on it. But he’s not actually cracking down or to the extent he is it’s not effective. As a crackdown politician he’s failing on his own terms.

TPM