Quote:
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop
You read the entire "story," which is a blog post. I cut and pasted the whole text. He's talking about a bunch of poll results that came out yesterday, which together show the race where it was before the RNC and Kenosha. There are a lot of people who suggested that the reaction to Kenosha would hurt Biden. So far, I'm not seeing it, your link notwithstanding.
There is plenty of time for things to change between now and Election Day, but the fundamental problem with Trump's pitch is, he's the incumbent. All of the riots (and the pandemic, for that matter) are happening on his watch.
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I've read that the lack of candor and the lack of response to polls by people who support conservative and populist positions builds a 5-6% margin of error into the polls. If that's accurate, I think we see a 3-5 point spread between Biden and Trump. That's within or nearly within the general margin of error.
I'd like to see what the response would be to a Rust Belt poll asking this question:
"Do you want to see this looting and rioting stopped and those involved in crimes as part of it prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law?"
You'd get a huge affirmative response from Ds and Rs.
YMMV, but I do not see the story that Trump is causing or failing to respond to these riots gaining any momentum. The story that's gelling right now is that the Democrats' left wing is enabling this stuff.
And a big part of the reason is because people are exhausted with the President being blamed for everything. People may be dumb generally, but they realize that Trump did not cause George Floyd's murder, and the argument he created the environment for it is a facile attempt to link the two. They don't blame Trump for riots in Portland or CHAZ in Seattle because those are clearly caused by crazy people who just like to burn things.
People do blame him for Covid deaths, but most of those people are already voting Democrat. YMMV, but most moderates here look at the Covid deaths as a "meh." Shit happens, but the President can't fix everything.
People may blame Trump for not tamping down the riots more effectively, but those people are right wingers. They want law 'n order. They aren't voting for Biden.
If the economy continues to get better and the school openings don't turn into total shitshows (they are to an extent, but the media isn't following it much for some reason), this is a nail biter.
A surgeon friend just laughed to me today, "I can't wait for November 4, when Covid expires." That sentiment abounds. Another one is, "We can't have these nuts you see in Portland running around everywhere."
