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[Icky Thump]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Trump has himself in a tight spot here. Two big questions.

1. Is it better to deal with: (a) increased blue turnout accruing from Democrats' desire to control appointment of the next judge; or, (b) increased blue turnout from anger at the GOP having appointed a judge prior to the election?

This is impossibly difficult. A and B are so close.

2. Is it better to have: (a) increased red turnout accruing from conservative voters' desire to control appointment of the next judge; or, (b) increased red turnout following the GOP having appointed a judge prior to the election?

This is difficult but a bit easier to assess. A forces a lot of Never Trumpers and business people who are thinking of voting for Biden back into the fold. B is a bet that placing a SCOTUS justice will create momentum going into the election. I could see it backfiring. Those "Rockefeller Republicans" and Never Trumpers I cited see getting a 6-3 split and getting rid of Trump as a pretty decent deal. They're more focused on holding the Senate. Losing the Presidency while getting a 6th conservative justice and holding the Senate is a recipe for gridlock, which they like.

But the GOP also has to worry about losing the Senate if the appointment of a right-wing justice causes them to lose a significant portion of the suburban female vote.

This is all fantasy, of course, as Trump isn't thinking this deeply, but instead allowing his id to make the decision. And that decision will all but assuredly be, Take the Fastest Win You Can.

The magic bullet in his choices is to appoint a woman that Dems don't hate.