Quote:
Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield
I see more of a totally pure rural/urban split. I think Trump did all he could, but he simply does not have enough voters sympathetic to him or his party.
|
This is insane. If margins are as thin now as they were in 2016, with turnout at the levels we saw, I don't see how you can say that he simply doesn't have enough voters. I think it is very easy to say that Trump could have won this without even doing the hypothetical "Trump could have won if he'd just acted unTrumpy." In most of the tossup states, Trump's underperformance relative to congressional Rs exceeds the margin of the Biden victory (as does the Libertarian vote, in many circumstances). It seems there was a very marginal rejection of Trump, and a fair amount of ticket splitting.
What I found most interesting was the wholesale failure by pollsters to capture the electorate, and the unforeseen by any demographic shift by Latino voters and young Black men: that certain traditionally reliable D voters seem to not be on the same page on issues like police defunding and the impact of intersectionality on the D message.
For the first time, I think there's evidence that demography does not mean that a purple or blue Texas is inevitable. I still cannot believe Trump won an 85% Latino border county that Hillary won by 30 points 4 years ago.
