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Re: Math is hard.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski
Again, they were spot on in 2016, but yeah this time was off. I do wonder how big a "Bradley effect" hit for our boy. If I had planned on voting for him I'd def have lied to a pollster. The only people that I could see admitting it are the real horribles.
But the polls were accurate other than him. Realclearpolitics had the Senate pretty much dead on. So I wouldn't write off polls in a normal race where one of the candidates isn't mentally insane and a wreckless egomaniac who cares for no one.
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I want to know who actually talks to pollsters (or phone bankers) on the phone. With dozens of political calls every day during an election cycle, I don't pick up anything unless I know the number. I imagine most everyone else is the same. It can't be a good sample, no matter how many numbers they try.
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"In the olden days before the internet, you'd take this sort of person for a ride out into the woods and shoot them, as Darwin intended, before he could spawn."--Will the Vampire People Leave the Lobby? pg 79
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