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[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Why just hope? The Court, this Court in particular, is political. If we assume the person who leaked this had inside info regarding the status of the votes, we can assume they leaked in an effort to create pressure to either lock in the justices or to cause one of them to change his vote. And given the fact that Roberts did not author this draft, it's a fair assumption he might be leaning toward a Solomonic decision (states can regulate abortion to an extent, but not unreasonably prohibit one).

I'd guess the vote most likely to join that and switch this to a 5-4 vote in favor of preserving Roe would be Kavanagh or Gorsuch.

Kavanagh clerked for Kennedy and replaced him. Kennedy famously changed his vote (allegedly at Laurence Tribe's urging) from overturning to upholding Roe in Casey.

Now is the time to bring intense pressure on Kavanagh and Gorsuch. Make it clear just how much they'll be pariahs, and how much damage they'll do to the institution, if they support Alito here. Make it clear how much damage they'll do to the country if they leave this issue to state legislatures. Now is the time to tell everyone you know who be able to be heard by or exert indirect pressure on the potential swing votes to get in their faces. Implore them not to take the country down a terribly dark path.

Seriously, if Kennedy could be swayed in 1992, why not Gorsuch or Kavanagh now? If you have to picket in their front yards, pressure the fuck out of these two. If shit gets intense enough, they might shift, and it appears there's a really solid chance Roberts is looking for an off ramp and in desperate need of an ally.

It has become more clear that there is some sort of split within the conservative side of the Court about whether to overrule Roe dramatically or to eat away at it by pieces. Alito wants to do the former. Roberts wants to do the latter. Alito would not have been drafting a majority opinion if Roberts were in the majority, so it appears that in February, Alito had five votes, so presumably Roberts was trying to win at least one, maybe most likely Kavanagh, back. The best guess is that the draft was leaked by Alito or someone close to him to try to mobilize pressure on the five to stick with his approach.

Or maybe this.