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Originally posted by Secret_Agent_Man
That's right, Hank. So . . look at the last three/four factors I cited together all and consider them all together. People's attitudes and behavior clearly changed. The question is why -- and whether (per Club) it all traces to the existence of AFDC. It seems nonsensical to me to believe that people actually thought -- "Hey, no need to marry the Baby Momma, she'll get $150 a month from the G."
S_A_M
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I don't and won't speak for them, but why does the intent have to be "let's have a kid to get paid". If someone thinks "its okay to take a chance on getting pregnant" or "its okay to take a chance carrying this pregnancy through though I don't plan on getting a job", at least in part because their care is provided for by the G, then why wouldn't their consideration of the G's support be enough to consider the G's support as a causation?
The best example I can cite in support of Club's line of argument is that pregnancy rates for the unmarried, as well as abortion rates etc for the unmarried, seem to have started dropping as welfare reform kicked in. While the trend may (or may not) have started before (or after) welfare reform, I think its at least arguable that people cumulatively slowed down in engaging in the risky behavior once the limits were imposed.
Not to say I don't still stare at the news with an open mouth when I see stories of public housing teens or other recipient-types with 3 kids since '96 (or parents in their 20's with 5 or 7), because I still do run across those stories occasionally.
A great example was the D2 nightclub disaster in Chicago where almost all of the deceased were single parents of either sex (with more than 1 having children by different partners). It would almost make you think that the ghetto norms haven't changed, but the cumulative statistics collected by the government indicate otherwise.
So, if the childbearing rates start dropping in the group once the threat of cutoff is imposed, why would it be hard to believe that they rose as a result (and concurrent with) of the adoption of the great society social programs?
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