Quote:
Originally posted by Not Me
It is a great strategy because it excites the social conservatives and gets them out to vote. As you note, the fiscal conservatives are never going to vote for the Dems. And those in the middle will vote based on the economy.
So if the economy keeps improving and GWB pushes for an amendment on gay marriage, he will win barring any unforeseen terrorist attack on US soil
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I still disagree, and think that Bush just lost the election on this issue (assuming he continues to push for this amendment.)
I think the support for such an amendment is far thinner than perceived. I think that, as a casual question, "do you favor gay marriages" probably gets a lot of "no"'s, but, as a much-discussed, constantly-debated long run-up to an amendment ratification election, the question of "shall we amend the Constitution to prevent these people from every marrying" isn't going to go far. Most of those casual "no, I don't favor gay marriage"'s come from people who don't think about it much, and don't know (overtly) any gay people, and so it's always been a throw-away issue. A lot of those "no" 's are going to turn into "no amendment" 's once middle America starts to really consider what's being done. Once they start to see normal gay couples on TV speaking of why they want to be married, and realize that a SanFran shock parade isn't "normal" gay America, the auto-backlash reaction is going to dissipate.
We all can make thoughtless and ignorant group-choices when that's the easiest route, but I think that people, as a whole, are more decent than not, and so I think we've probably just recently seen the beginnings of real progress for gay rights in this country. I think that Bush, with his new panderings, has firmly placed himself in line with the Nationalist Party SA in 1948. "People", in general, and after real reflection, are not going to want to be on this particular side of this issue - just as no one wants to be remembered as the one who kicked Rosa out of her seat. Bush is joining the side that wants to kick some people totally out of the bus, and there are an awful lot of people out here who believe that conservative economic and social policy work best, but aren't willing to join the new South Africa to get there.
Bush had best let this one die of its own weight, quickly. If he truly wants to make this the point of comparison in the election, well, he's foolish.
