Waiting for Fitzgerald - Page 318

Hank Chinaski · 11-02-2005, 05:33 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by sebastian_dangerfield
Thats what the whole "super-precedent" thing discusses. If you haven't heard it yet, many people have been touting Roe as a "super-precedent" standing for the principle thhat abortion must be legal. They say - and Roberts himself acknowledged - that Roe can't be overturned just on the basis that its technically not great law. its a flawed justification for a social policy which can't be overturned, and the last 30 years of decisions upholding it are the Court's best attempts to avoid undoing on a technicality a right of women which our society can't afford to undo.

Nobody knows this better than the GOP - thats why Arlen Specter and his cronies have pushed the concept of the "superprecedent" recently. It gives the GOP an avenue around the states rights advocates who really just want to flip Roe. The GOP can't flip Roe. Its political suicide. Look for a "superprecedent" justification for Roe in coming years.

Roberts won't vote to reverse. Chill.

Penske_Account · 11-02-2005, 05:38 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Hank Chinaski
Roberts won't vote to reverse. Chill.

Bush may get another couple on there before he's done. I don't give Stevens until the end of this term and Ginsburg is shaky.

bush owes the court its first hispanic and another woman. Garza and JRB. We won;t need Roberts then.

Replaced_Texan · 11-02-2005, 05:41 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Penske_Account
[hello Alito!] It is getting less solid by the day.[/hello Alito!]

Based on the dissent in Casey, which used the framework of Roe, but came to a different conclusion with regard to undue burden?

Mmmm, Burger (C.J.) · 11-02-2005, 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Nobody knows this better than the GOP - thats why Arlen Specter and his cronies have pushed the concept of the "superprecedent" recently.

Who are specter's cronies? He has a rather different view on the matter than most Rs in the Senate.

Mmmm, Burger (C.J.) · 11-02-2005, 05:45 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Penske_Account
Bush may get another couple on there before he's done. I don't give Stevens until the end of this term and Ginsburg is shaky.

bush owes the court its first hispanic and another woman. Garza and JRB. We won;t need Roberts then.

He'll get one more, but with a democratic senate, it will be a tough push.

Penske_Account · 11-02-2005, 05:52 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Replaced_Texan
Based on the dissent in Casey, which used the framework of Roe, but came to a different conclusion with regard to undue burden?

Its hard to say. I am not sure what the facts and law of the superduperprecedentoverturner's case is going to offer to let them get there.

SlaveNoMore · 11-02-2005, 06:03 PM

Quote:

Mmmm, Burger (C.J.)
Probably a bunch of people formerly in teh know had their own negative gut reactions, and were happy to talk.

So as SAMmy said, wheres the independent counsel investigation?

Penske_Account · 11-02-2005, 06:04 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Mmmm, Burger (C.J.)
He'll get one more, but with a democratic senate, it will be a tough push.

Dream on.

SlaveNoMore · 11-02-2005, 06:18 PM

Quote:

Penske_Account
What was Plessy, a superduperprecedent? Is Brown the example of a superduperprecedentoverturner?

I wonder what case will be the superprecedentoverturner of Roe?

Is this anything like a Supertuscan?

SlaveNoMore · 11-02-2005, 06:19 PM

Quote:

Mmmm, Burger (C.J.)
He'll get one more, but with a democratic senate, it will be a tough push.

If wishes were horses, beggars would ride

Replaced_Texan · 11-02-2005, 06:23 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Penske_Account
Dream on.

These are the Senators whose seats are up in 2006. I'd guess that Chafee, DeWine and Santorum are the most vulnerable Republicans, though I haven't seen any polling yet. I'd love to see Frist and Lott go down, but that's just wishful thinking.

Has anyone announced an open seat? ETA: Sarbanes (D-MD), Dayton (D-MN), Corzine (D-NJ), Frist (R-TN), and Jeffords (I-VT) aren't running according to the DSCC

Secret_Agent_Man · 11-02-2005, 06:26 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Hank Chinaski
Roberts won't vote to reverse. Chill.

It is not at all clear to me that Alito would actually vote to reverse Roe. He is not particularly radical.

Oh, the wailing and gnashing of teeth on this Board if that day comes! superduper!

S_A_M

eta: Nor does Alito seem to be a "results-oriented" judge. That is, he doesn't appear to start with a result in mind and reason backwards to justify it.

Hank Chinaski · 11-02-2005, 06:27 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Replaced_Texan
These are the Senators whose seats are up in 2006. I'd guess that Chafee, DeWine and Santorum are the most vulnerable Republicans, though I haven't seen any polling yet. I'd love to see Frist and Lott go down, but that's just wishful thinking.

Has anyone announced an open seat?

5 or 6 retirees. Severals may retires. Heavily slanted to the Dems retiring. I don't offer bets I might lose.

Captain · 11-02-2005, 06:37 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Replaced_Texan
These are the Senators whose seats are up in 2006. I'd guess that Chafee, DeWine and Santorum are the most vulnerable Republicans, though I haven't seen any polling yet. I'd love to see Frist and Lott go down, but that's just wishful thinking.

Has anyone announced an open seat? ETA: Sarbanes (D-MD), Dayton (D-MN), Corzine (D-NJ), Frist (R-TN), and Jeffords (I-VT) aren't running according to the DSCC

You could probably spend the rest of the evening here , going through likely scenarios.

Historically, I believe incumbent Presidents lose seats in mid term elections, particularly in their second term. I cannot believe there is any reason for that historical trend to differ this time, unless Bush can come up with some substantial accomplishments for himself and the Senate in the next six months, before they all leave to campaign.

Penske_Account · 11-02-2005, 06:37 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Replaced_Texan
These are the Senators whose seats are up in 2006. I'd guess that Chafee, DeWine and Santorum are the most vulnerable Republicans, though I haven't seen any polling yet. I'd love to see Frist and Lott go down, but that's just wishful thinking.

Has anyone announced an open seat? ETA: Sarbanes (D-MD), Dayton (D-MN), Corzine (D-NJ), Frist (R-TN), and Jeffords (I-VT) aren't running according to the DSCC

I'd guess that Stabenow, Conrad, Nelson (Bill) and Kohl are the most vulnerable Demos, although I haven't seen any polling yet. I'd love to see Hillary, Byrd and Feinstein go down, but that's just wishful thinking.